POLITICS
12/04/2008 05:12 am ET Updated Dec 06, 2017

Bookies More Reliable Than Exit Polls

Forget the polls. When it comes to predicting elections, head down to your local betting hall and talk to some gamblers.

They have a much better record at forecasting elections, writes HuffPost blogger Keith Thomson.

"On Election Night I'll look at the movement on the betting sites to see what's going on," says University of Kansas economics professor/betting trends expert Koleman Strumpf. "I watch CNN too, out of the corner of an eye, but it's not necessary."

On Election Day, bookmaker Betfair.com will be tracking betting odds in real-time and the activity of thousands of bettors can prove to be a much more reliable gauge of the results than what's being broadcast on the network news, says Betfair's political expert Michael Robb.

Check out Betfair.com's latest numbers on the election:

CHANCE OF WINNING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:

An up-to-the-minute prediction of who will win based on millions of wagers

Note: To view a prettier, full-size, interactive version of the above chart (allowing you to mouse-over for more data and to go as far back as a year in the election timeline), click here.