Jonathan Chait is right that the recent numbers from Public Policy Polling should alert everyone to the fact that Michele Bachmann's campaign could do quite well in New Hampshire. But New Hampshire is the Mitt Romney stronghold, you say! Yeah, you can still call it that. But per PPP, Bachmann has "gained 14 points over the last three months and now finds herself within single digits of" Romney. Moreover, as Chait points out, "Even before sustaining serious attacks, his favorable ratings in New Hampshire are dropping at rates that ought to terrify his campaign." PPP says:
Romney's starting to show some signs of weakness in New Hampshire. His support is down 12 points from 37% on the iteration of our April poll that didn't include Mike Huckabee or Donald Trump. His favorability numbers are headed in the wrong direction as well. He's dropped a net 18 points from +49 at 68/19 to +31 at 60/29. He's certainly still the front runner in the state but he's not looking as inevitable as he did a few months ago.
Chait goes on:
Many reporters have noted that a one-on-one matchup between Romney and Bachmann is Romney's dream scenario. That's true -- it's his best chance to have the establishment rally behind him. I haven't seen them mention that it's also Bachmann's dream scenario -- she gets to face off against an establishment candidate totally unacceptable to large segments of the party base.
One of those dream scenarios won't come to pass, but for the moment, it's not quite clear which candidate has the advantage.
Google had this "Big Idea" called Google Plus, and so Newt Gingrich, the man of "Big Ideas," is all up in your webz, Google Plussing like a champ! How on earth is it possible that Google beat Gingrich to this awesome "Big Idea?" Probably because Google didn't take a two-week vacation to Greece! [Newt Gingrich @ Google+]
Yesterday, I said that people were going to "make hay" out of the "godly husband" quote from that Post piece on the Family Bachmann, despite the fact that her record of standing on her own two feet in Congress would dispel the predictably attendant cliches. And I was right! [Dave Weigel @ Slate]
Matt Lewis says that Mitt Romney has an "aggressive strategy to manage the press." But is it "bullying?" Ha, no: is there a person alive that Mitt Romney could bully? Sakes alive! No, Romney will just
have his alpha subroutines routinely checked to make sure they are operating within standard industry parameters be tightly "scripted." [Daily Caller]
At the same time, Rush Limbaugh says: "I swear every time Mitt Romney opens his mouth I think he's running against me." [Political Wire]
Gary Johnson is aggressively courting poker players, in order to steal that niche voter set away from Newt Gingrich. [Ben Smith]
Karl Rove is pretty sure that he can't mount an effective messaging campaign without hypnotizing Republicans with spooky subliminal messages. OoooOOOooOOoohhh! Karl Rove is THE MENTALIST now, or something! [War Room @ Salon]