POLITICS
10/16/2012 11:06 am ET Updated Dec 06, 2017

10/16/12 Pollster Open Thread

This open thread is to discuss all of the day's polls -- what they tell us about the election, their methodological strengths and weaknesses, notable findings others have missed or whatever else you want to talk about. Each day's open thread will appear in the morning and remain open for 24 hours. We also encourage you to use the "favorite" button to identify the most interesting or insightful comments.

Monday featured comment
"Mitt's got to get more of the swing states than Obama. Mitt hasn't played in PA or MI yet so it looks like he's still conceding those states (that may change, yes). Mitt's outspending Obama 4/1 in NC; I see this as a function of Obama's team not really wanting to waste resources there if they're sure they're going to win in OH. I'm thinking internals show a still solid-enough lead in OH. So let's just concede NC. If Obama wins Ohio we all know there are far fewer Romney paths to victory. Obama even has the luxury of giving up on FL if need be. So yes, Romney may be up 2 in swing states but, if he loses OH, and, as it seems certain, PA, so what, so long as Obama can cobble together 15 votes and he can do it as follows:

WI + any state but NH
VA + any other state
IA + CO
NV + CO
FL
CO + IA plus any other state

So, there needs to be another shift about 1.5 points towards Romney, as I see it, to make the election competitive. WI, right now seems to be just out of reach, and that's pretty deadly if OH and PA are also gone. Also Obama has as much or more money as Romney at this point; plenty to make all the necessary ad buys to match Mitt dollar for dollar in all vital TV markets." - TJampel

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