10/19/2012 05:19 pm ET Updated Oct 19, 2012

No President Reelected Without 'Outliers'

Gallup's Frank Newport talks with Ezra Klein about his likely voter model, which he also defends against the Obama campaign's pollster.

Charlie Cook thinks a popular vote/electoral college split is very possible. AP's Charles Babington has more on 'nightmare election scenarios,' and the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review's Salena Zito outlines a quirk that could lead to the Romney-Biden administration.

David Plouffe tells reporters the Obama campaign doesn't conduct national polls.

Jonathan Bernstein questions Romney's debate bump.

Chris Cillizza disputes the idea that Mitt Romney has a woman problem - yet.

Lynn Vavreck finds party ID drives the decisions of the undecided.

The 'Lohan Effect' could give Romney a boost with low-information voters.

Mark Mellman trusts himself.

Dan Hopkins reviews the problem of out-of-state cell phone numbers and state level polls.

Jennifer Rubin catches an inflammatory question on a PPP poll.

The New York Times charts the ebb and flow of swing states.

Gallup's 1938 polling offered some unusual response categories.

XKCD demolishes electoral precedent "rules."