10/30/2012 04:18 pm ET Updated Oct 30, 2012

Obama Holds Lead in Miami-Dade, According To Herald Poll, While Cubans Close Romney Gap

President Obama is holding a comfortable lead in Miami-Dade County, while Republican Mitt Romney has nearly overwhelmingly captured the votes of Cuban Americans, according to a poll by The Miami Herald.

In a telephone survey of 265 likely voters conducted between October 22 and 24, 52 percent said they would vote for the president and 42 percent said they would cast ballots for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, with five percent undecided.

Though favorable for Obama, the numbers do signal a much tighter race than 2008 in the most populous county in the country's largest swing state: Obama enjoyed a much wider 58-42 election result against Sen. John McCain four years ago.

The president holds double-digit leads among most Miami ethnic groups, polling at 64, 95, and 56 percent with Miami-area whites, blacks, and non-Cuban Hispanics, respectively.

Although not groundbreaking, the poll suggests the Cuban American vote may give some hope to the Romney campaign: 76 percent of polled Cuban-Americans plan to vote for the GOP nominee, countering a widely-cited September poll that indicated Obama held a majority of Cuban support at 55 percent.

Coming in the midst of week-long early voting throughout Florida, the Herald poll signals the final vote count in reliably-blue Miami may make for a dicy photo-finish in Florida: three major state-wide polls show the candidates are statistically tied.

The Herald poll was conducted jointly with Mason-Dixon polling and reported a margin of error of four percent.

2012 Swing State Polls