POLITICS
05/07/2013 04:17 pm ET

POLLSTER UPDATE: South Carolina's 1st District Votes Tonight

AP

For South Carolina's election day, a lesson in comparative politics: In the U.S., politicos either obsess over the latest twitch in automated telephone polls or bemoan the "shockingly low barrier to entry" for pollsters. In Russia, prosecutors search the offices of a pollster whose results anger the government. This is the HuffPost Pollster update for Tuesday, May 7, 2013.

CABLE WINS PRIMETIME IN SC-01 - CMAG's Elizabeth Wilner reports on patterns in television advertising buys in South Carolina: "In today's special election in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District, as these visuals of Kantar Media CMAG and NCC Media data show, both sides focused their local cable buys between the hours of 7:00pm-11:00pm. For local broadcast, they favored the earlier hours of the day." In broadcast advertising, the SC-01 buying patterns resembled the 2012 presidential campaign: "[E]arly morning news was the most heavily trafficked programming by Republican presidential advertisers, followed by daytime programming. For Democrats, morning news ranked second after daytime, when certain Democratic-leaning voters are home watching network soaps and talk shows." Cook Political Report]

One more unreleased robo-poll - National Journal's Hotline: "Imagine a legacy industry that still uses expensive methods to produce a top-quality product that fewer and fewer people are buying. Journalism? Perhaps. But we're talking about the polling industry, and the shockingly low barrier to entry that's changing the way both parties keep tabs on key races. The DCCC last week put a survey into the field in SC-01. But instead of contracting with one of their usual vendors, the committee used in-house IVR software to conduct the poll. The DNC has similar in-house IVR capabilities, while the NRCC and NRSC have been using some IVR surveys for cost containment, and to back-check their live caller surveys." [National Journal-gated]

Where to watch results - The polls in South Carolina -- the other kind -- close at 7 p.m. Eastern time. HuffPost will bring you the latest county totals from the Associated Press and the South Carolina State Election Commission has a live feed of results down to the precinct level. [HuffPost Live Results, SCvotes.org]

And what to watch for - The Guardian's Harry Enten, who expects the first results by about 7:45 pm and all votes counted by 9:30 pm., has posted a spreadsheet with a "rough guide" to what Colbert Busch needs to win by precinct, assuming a uniform shift in vote preference and turnout. [GoogleDocs spreadsheet and explanation]

SC-01 Twitter tea-leaves:

-Republican pollster Steve Lombardo: "Sanford will win tonight." [@Steve_Lombardo]

-TNR's Nate Cohn: "The stakes of SC-01: 1/435th of the House. ... and nothing, nothing, nothing more." [@electionate]

PARTISANS DIVIDE ON ISLAM AND VIOLENCE - A new Pew Research survey finds little change since the Boston bombings in Americans' views of Islam: Nearly as many (42 percent) now say the Islamic religion is more likely than others to encourage violence among its believers, while 46 percent say Islam does not encourage violence more than other religions -- prior surveys over the past decade have produced similar results. "And the partisan gap is as large as ever: 62% of Republicans say that Islam encourages violence more than other religions, compared with 39% of independents and just 29% of Democrats...The survey also finds that Muslim Americans are seen as facing more discrimination than some other groups in society, including gays and lesbians, Hispanic Americans, African Americans and women." [Pew Research]

RUSSIAN PROSECUTORS SEARCH POLLING FIRM - Financial Times: "An independent Russian polling agency whose research has charted the falling popularity of President Vladimir Putin has been searched by prosecutors alleging links to foreign sponsors. The Levada Center on Tuesday confirmed that checks had taken place, but said it had yet to receive an official order to register as a "foreign agent", as required by a new law that smears domestic organisations that receive money from abroad...On April 17, [the firm] published a poll which showed that 55 per cent of Russians wanted to see someone other than Mr Putin elected president when his term ends in 2018. It also publishes a monthly poll showing the percentage of Russians who agree with the statement that the ruling United Russia party is a "party of crooks and thieves", a phrase coined by opposition leader Alexei Navalny. In April for the first time, a majority of 51 per cent of Russians polled agreed with the slogan. [Financial Times]

POLISCI ROUNDUP OF 2012 CAMPAIGN EFFECTS -- GWU Prof. John Sides and his colleagues at The Monkey Cage are hosting "a little symposium" on their blog this week "on how much campaigning actually mattered in this most recent presidential election." More analysis of the 2012 election? Sides explains: "Getting credible estimates of what the advertising and field organizations actually accomplished is still important. The temptation after every election is to give the winner's campaign too much credit and the loser's too much blame. 2012 was no different, especially because the Obama campaign was genuinely innovative. I've been somewhat skeptical of the narrative that Obama won because of his superior campaign." [MonkeyCage]

First up:

-Michael Franz finds that Obama did better in 2012 where he spent more on television advertising, but the effect was weaker than in 2008 or (for Kerry) in 2004. [Monkey Cage]

-Ryan Enos and Anthony Fowler find evidence that while both campaigns increased turnout in the battleground states in 2012, Obama's mobilization efforts were "barely more effective" than Romney's. [Monkey Cage]

TUESDAY'S 'OUTLIERS' - Links to more news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:

-Scott Brown would leads all potential Democratic candidate for Massachusetts governor, should he choose to run. [PPP]

-Can Republican Gabriel Gomez defeat Democrat Ed Markey in Massachusetts? Sean Trende says "probably not, although it is possible"; Nate Silver says Gomez needs to "run toward the center" to win. [RCP, NYTimes]

-Harry Enten says Chris Christie doesn't need to lose weight to become president. [Guardian]

-Political science conference on social media and political participation to be live streamed this weekend. [Monkey Cage]

-AAPOR releases 2013 conference mobile apps for iOS and Android. [iTunes App Store, Google Play]

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