07/04/2013 11:42 am ET

Bill Barnwell Breaks Down The 2012 Numbers To Get A Feel For 2013 - Grantland


Better than one out of every four teams that finishes 6-10 makes the playoffs the following year. That staggering-but-true statistic came up last year, when I went looking for the tell-tale signs of an unlikely leap and mentioned how I would be immediately drug-tested for predicting that the likes of the Colts, Redskins, or Vikings would make the playoffs.1 Winning is everything, but when it comes to figuring out how NFL teams will perform in the future, their win-loss record really doesn't offer as much insight as it might seem.

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