In the future, public schools are going to be less white and more Hispanic, according to recent data from the National Center for Education Statistics.
The report estimates that between the 2009-2010 and 2022-2023 school years, there will be a 16 percent decrease in white students, 14 percent decrease in black students, and 29 percent decrease in American Indian and Alaskan Native students who graduate public high school. However, there's expected to be 23 percent increase in Asian and Pacific Islander students and a whopping 64 percent increase in Hispanic students who graduate.
A graph from the agency breaks it down:
Of these graduation rate changes, most of the movement will be taking place in the South and Northeast. By 2022-2023, the number of public high school graduates is expected to decrease 10 percent in the Northeast and 8 percent in the Midwest. The number is expected to increase 9 percent in the South and 5 percent in the West:
The graduation rate changes are largely consistent with general enrollment trends. The number of students enrolling in public elementary and secondary schools is expected to decrease 6 percent for whites and 5 percent for American Indian and Alaskan natives between 2011 and 2022. The number of public elementary and secondary school students is expected to increase 2 percent for blacks, 33 percent for Hispanics, 20 percent for Asians and Pacific Islanders and 44 percent for students of two or more races between the same time frame.
However, as the Education Writers’ Association (EWA) points out, the states where high school enrollment and graduation rates are expected to grow the most tend to spend the least on education. While student populations are expected to grow tremendously in states like Arizona, Florida and Texas, states in the Northeast currently spend much more per pupil.
It is unclear whether or not these student population changes will prompt policy movement.
“State policy makers, because there’s so much going on between the here and now, I can’t think of any school funding formula that reflects changes ten years down the line,” says Mike Griffith, a senior school finance analyst for the Education Commission of the States (ECS), told EWA.