Wills and Kate are ready to declare their commitment in spectacular fashion at Westminster Abbey before millions on international TV. From that moment onwards, Kate's (or Catherine's - as we must now call her) life will change with all the luxuries and duties the royal family will bestow and require. The pressures of public life, of a heavy program of engagements and constant media scrutiny, along with the constraints of a highly traditional organization (and you don't get more traditional than the British monarchy) can be overwhelming, and took a terminal toll on the marriages of three out of our Queen's four children.
The acrimonious public divorce of Prince William's parents showed that even the crowned heads of England are not immune to messy and visible marital breakdown. When Prince Charles and Princess Diana divorced in 1996 it was a media circus--Diana gave her famous "three people in our marriage" interview about the Prince's affair with his present wife Camilla Parker-Bowles, Charles responded with an interview of his own about how he had been faithful "until the marriage had broken down" and the press was full of the details of how much Diana was claiming for beauty treatments and the like. Charles, represented by my opponent in the Radmacher case, Fiona Shackleton, reportedly drove a hard bargain on restrictions such as Diana not moving abroad. Diana was compensated with cash and lifestyle, ending up with about $33 million, a home in Kensington Palace, support for the children and her charitable office and the right to keep calling herself Princess of Wales. Probably a pretty fair deal all round in circumstances of vast wealth and status, and that without a prenup.
Can Kate and William avoid the fate of almost half of British married couples?
We are, now, a society in which one almost expects divorce, with a 40-odd percent breakdown rate, and a cynicism underlies the most chocolate-box of weddings. But for Wills and Kate, the signs are hopeful. Their relationship is in many ways (save for the royal titles) a classic romance, but it is distinguished by a hard edge of reality and the test of time.
The relationship developed organically: the two met at St Andrews University, lived together with housemates there and William waited before asking for Kate's hand to give her the opportunity to, "back out" as he put it, if it all became too much.
Over their eight-year relationship Kate has had an inside look at the workings of the royal family and has clearly decided that she is up to the job. They broke up for a while. They chose to get back together. It was all handled with discretion. They both know how to play this game.
The Queen, having been through her fair share of anni horribili with her children's marriages has an incentive to ensure, this time, that the royal infrastructure supports and adapts to this young couple's needs.
William and Kate's long-term, kitchen sink romance is in stark contrast to those of an era where royal marriages were arranged; things were not much further on by the time William's parents got engaged: royalty mixed in limited and somewhat incestuous circles with other titled aristocrats, indeed Prince Charles had already dated Princess Diana's elder sister before making her his blushing 20-year-old bride.
Kate is not the young, blue-blooded filly prized for her virginity like Diana, but a well-educated, grown-up 29-year-old woman from an upper middle class family whose parents have not ancestral money, but are successful entrepreneurs.
Has this decidedly modern couple entered into a prenuptial agreement?
My firm's landmark Supreme Court victory in Radmacher v Granatino (2010,UKSC, 42), which has finally made prenuptial agreements binding in England unless 'unfair' has led to avid speculation about a 'royal prenup'.
Anecdotally, we are finding a lot more clients asking for prenups now that they can expect them to work. Post-nups are also finding favour especially after a crisis point such as an affair, as an alternative to breaking up all together. The impact of the Radmacher case is percolating steadily through society.
We fought and won that case to give couples the right to agree their own arrangements if that was best for them, but there are still times when it's better to leave well alone. A prenup could have many merits for Wills and Kate, setting up confidentiality, arrangements for titles and and predictability of payouts. Despite all that, I would be astonished if William and Kate had signed up. It's not the British royal way, and I think it would be considered highly infra dig. If there were a divorce, the royal family would broker a generous financial deal, traded off against privileges like titles, but would, I believe, refuse to horse-trade in advance.
There has been considerable hyperbole about the potential financial impact of a royal split. In Kate's case, if she and Prince William did divorce, her claim would not be to share his assets - she's not going to be banking Buckingham Palace, or, as some have suggested, 'half the country': her claim would be predominantly calculated on an assessment of her needs.
"Needs" are more than basics - they are reasonable requirements based, among other things, on the standard of living in the marriage and when there are children, on the standard of living of the parent with the money. You cannot have one parent in a palace and the other in a two-bedroom flat. One would expect Kate to walk away from the marriage with a multi-million pound property, a goodly lump sum and child maintenance if there are children.
The British public and the world at large are rooting for the happy couple and wish them a long, successful marriage.
If they become another divorce statistic, however, the financial settlement will be a generous sum to meet Kate's higher than average needs and the whole ordeal will be kept as quiet as possible. The relationship history of this couple has been one of dignity and long-term commitment rather than attention-seeking, even in adversity. Kate's a sensible girl who understands what she's dealing with and William has the wisdom of his parents' experience.
They have both been through a degree of thick and thin, if not for richer and for poorer. I have a good feeling about the marriage prospects of our very modern future King and Queen.
As with all marriages today, however, we have to cross our fingers and hold out for the triumph of hope over experience.