10/13/2010 05:35 pm ET Updated May 25, 2011

Dr. Bob Wednesday College Best Bet

I'm now 18-9-1 on my College Best Bets for the season and I have a Best Bet on Wednesday Night's game. Check my site at, on Thursday after 3:15 Pacific time each week for analysis on every College game, most of which can be found in my Free Analysis Section.

Wednesday, October 13
***Central Florida (-5 ½) 30 MARSHALL 12

Central Florida is a very good defensive team this season (4.2 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team), and the Golden Knights should have no trouble limiting a sub-par Marshall attack that is 0.3 yppl worse than average and averaging just 19 points per game. Central Florida has only allowed more than 17 points in one game (28 points to NC State) and that was a fluke given that the Knights only allowed NC State 244 yards at 3.6 yppl in that game. UCF is also 0.3 yppl worse than average offensively, but they've been better with Jeffrey Godfrey at quarterback (6.7 yards per pass play and 309 yards on 47 running plays) and Marshall's defense has given up 5.8 yppl and 35.4 points per game this season to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl and 29 points against an average defensive team. My math model gives UCF a 59.4% chance of covering at -5 ½ points and the Knights are already 3-0 ATS against bad teams this season, beating South Dakota 38-7 (-26 ½), at Buffalo 24-10 (-7 ½), and UAB last Wednesday 42-7 (-12). I'll take Central Florida in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 ½ points or less and for 2-Stars at -7 points.