Late last week I thought Hillary Clinton had to win in New Hampshire because she would certainly lose in South Carolina. Then, early this week it became clear she was not going to win in New Hampshire. She will almost certainly lose tonight.
And now a new poll confirms my suspicions - Obama is up by 20 points in South Carolina. Perhaps, even more importantly, he has now pulled even to Senator Clinton in national polls. So, there goes Hillary's one advantage.
Thereby leading the obvious question - is this thing over already? That's what we'll be asking tonight in our live coverage of the New Hampshire primary (check out our list of guests from the mainstream media and liberal blogosphere here, including the Huffington Post's Rachel Sklar (coverage begins at 7PM ET and is simulcast with a live blog on Brave New Films website).
Barring a Super Tuesday miracle, it looks like Senator Clinton is done. It happened so quickly that it's a little shocking. Hillary looks a little shocked on the campaign trail, too. But right now I can't see a way that she wins.
I'm not saying it's not possible, but it is now very, very improbable. I'm not sure where, when or how she could even mount a comeback. I'll tell you this, if a poll comes out soon saying she is losing in California or New Jersey, then it's definitely 100% over. And she should get out before there's a poll saying she's losing in NY, because that would just be embarrassing.
One more obvious implication of all this - since the Democrats are the overwhelming favorite in the general election, Barack Obama is likely to be your next President of the United States of America.