A new USAToday/Gallup poll taken (4/2-5/07) finds approval at 38%, disapproval at 58%. With the addition of this datapoint the trend estimator stands at 34.4%.
The new Gallup poll is a good bit above the previous trend estimate of 33.8% and is exerting a noticeable pull on the trend, but the new poll is within the +/- 5 point confidence interval for polling around the trend estimate, so it does not qualify for outlier status. As any reader of these pages should know, there is considerable variability in polling, and Gallup's latest is clearly high but within that range.
Looking only at Gallup polls since the 2006 election, approval has averaged 35.2% in Gallup's readings. This has fluctuated between 32% and 38% with little discernible trend. The current reading then, is also consistent with the variability in Gallup's polling over the past five months.
While the trend estimate takes a twitch up with this new poll, the shift is well within the range of noise around the estimator. My estimate has suggested that approval has held relatively steady between 33% and 35% since 1/1/2007. Until several more polls join Gallup in the high 30s, the best bet remains between 33% and 35%.
Cross-posted at Political Arithmetik.