12/27/2007 10:23 am ET Updated May 25, 2011

Hillary Clinton's Serious Iowa Problem

To begin with, I don't know who is going to win the Iowa Caucuses. The absolute truth is the pundits and others can guess all they want, but nobody really knows. There are simply too many pieces to the puzzle, and it's all those pieces that make the Iowa Caucuses the most intriguing electoral process in American politics.

My intention, and I want to be clear that I don't have permission, is to speak out for all the Democratic presidential campaigns by saying that a win (or a strong showing in some of the candidates' cases) in Iowa is of critical importance. That said, I am constitutionally incapable of sitting back in good conscience and quietly listening to Hillary Clinton's words to the people in Iowa and then her 180-degree spin to the national press.

Hillary Clinton has a serious political problem. From the get-go her campaign pushed her to the press and her contributors as the "inevitable" candidate. Her problem is if you bill yourself as the "inevitable" nominee in a presidential nominating race, you had better be right because there is no fall-back position. Now that her "inevitability" is under serious scrutiny, she is running around Iowa telling Iowans that she loves them, they are important, and she has to have them, while at the same time, she is spinning to the national press that Iowa is not so important that she has to win there to secure the nomination. The absolute truth is with a campaign team that looks like the 1927 New York Yankees and with all the resources she has thrown at Iowa, a bad showing from Hillary can only reinforce what so many of us have been saying all along. If she can't win Iowa, she has absolutely no chance to win the general. It's that simple.

Next Thursday night when she doesn't win the Iowa Caucuses, she will immediately say that Iowa is not all that important, which in my mind is not only denigrating all those Iowa Caucus goers who have taken their time to take a great look at all of the candidates, but it also gives all Americans a great look at what's to come.

After next Thursday night, Hillary Clinton will resort to the only conceivable option she has left. With the huge coffers she has accumulated from raising funds from the many who have a financial stake in the next administration, she's going to try to flood the media markets for February 5 and buy the damned thing. It's that simple

To paraphrase Mr. Lincoln, "You can fool some of the people all the time, but in the case of the Clinton campaign, everybody can see this trick coming." My greatest hope is the blogosphere and the national media won't let them get away with it.