THE BLOG
05/24/2016 10:10 am ET Updated May 25, 2017

Hillary Now Loses to Trump in Polls. Bernie Beats Trump by 10.8 Points.

For months, Bernie Sanders has told audiences across the country that he is the best candidate to face Donald Trump based on polls that simulate a hypothetical showdown in November. Sanders continues to hammer in this sentiment now that the other Republican nominees have withdrawn from the race. And truly, new polls indicate this may now be the case. One of the polls, from Fox, not only shows Trump ahead of Hillary 45-42, a ten point swing in Hillary's favor from last month, but also Bernie Sanders with a +4 lead over Trump. A similar CBS/New York Times polls shows Trump closing the gap on Hillary, with only a six point lead as opposed to last month's ten point lead. The same poll shows Bernie Sanders with a 13-point lead on Trump. In this clip, I take a look at the group of recent polls that depict these claims. Earlier in his campaign, Bernie's claims may not have been entirely true, but these polls indicate that right now, he may be right. Are these polls outliers or otherwise untrustworthy for some reason?

This entire issue circles back to the concept of a candidate's electability- how likely they are to win in November. Even writing off Fox's poll as trustworthy, and the Rasmussen poll as right-leaning, and the New York Times poll for including more independents than Democrats as well as Republicans, which favors Bernie, the realclearpolitics average of recent polling agrees that Bernie Sanders is polling significantly better against Donald Trump than is Hillary Clinton.

The real caveat or point of questioning is that this election cycle knows has been particularly peculiar. In general, polls conducted in May don't necessarily indicate how the actual campaign will go come November. Given the wildcard nature of this election, there's even more of a reason to wonder how much May polling tells us about a November election. While these polls may not completely paint an accurate picture, it shouldn't take away from the sentiment that a candidate's electability should matter to voters.