For the past several years, tech analysts have been claiming that the death of PCs is right around the corner. Oftentimes sensationalist with only the seeming popularity of mobile devices to point to as evidence, these claims have obviously failed to come to fruition. However, this year has unearthed some interesting new evidence that could spell the demise of the PC.
To clarify, the term "PC" can actually refer to any general computer, but throughout this article, I'll be using it in the colloquial context--that is, in reference to Wintel desktop and laptop devices.
The Triumph of Mobile Traffic
May 2015 was a major month for SEO professionals, tech enthusiasts, and futurists everywhere; after years of a progressively building trend, mobile searches finally overtook desktop searches as the predominant medium of choice. As announced formally by Google, the trend holds true in 10 different countries, including the United States and Japan.
Google, of course, is responsible for setting and influencing tech trends across multiple channels and mediums. Their Panda algorithm update back in 2011 helped shape a new landscape for online content, and Hummingbird in 2013 introduced semantic-based searching to the world. Now, Google is catering to mobile users more than any others, even forgoing desktop users in anticipation that desktop devices will eventually become obsolete. Take, for instance, the so-called "Mobilegeddon" algorithm update earlier this year, which penalized sites that weren't optimized for mobile devices. It was an obvious move to help business owners realize the importance of mobile traffic, but consider Google's recent statement that desktop sites are no longer necessary--mobile-only sites are considered perfectly okay. It's a clear indication that Google is anticipating the eventual death of the traditional PC.
A Drop in PC Shipments
PC shipments, a fairly reliable estimate of projected sales, are expected to fall 8.7 percent this year, not stabilizing until 2017. Some reasons for this include currency devaluations and global economic concerns, but the bulk of the decline stems from a lack of consumer enthusiasm about PC devices. The world anticipates new mobile devices and wearable devices now, and the need for a traditional PC diminishes with each new mobile app.
A drop of 8.7 percent is certainly significant, but that alone doesn't promise the total eventual obsolescence of the PC.
Disinterest in Tablets
Tablets have been the middle ground for both companies and consumers for the past several years. Rather than abandoning a laptop-like platform entirely, the tablet exists as a kind of hybrid between traditional PC and touch-based mobile device. After emerging, tablets were projected to become a kind of new standard, but recent data suggests a much different scene.
Tablet shipments are expected to decline internationally by 8 percent, similar to their PC counterparts (though theoretically stabilizing in 2017). Even Apple tablets, the relatively popular iPad, have seen almost-predictable declines in shipments on a quarterly basis for over a year and a half. Consumers just aren't excited about tablets the way they used to be, though hybrid devices that function as both a laptop and a tablet are remaining steady in terms of shipments and demand.
Temporary Innovations
Multiple companies have tried desperately to improve the image of tablets and PCs, but a lack of any breakthrough innovations in the past few years has led to a perception that tablets and PCs simply don't have much more to offer. Tablets become a little bit thinner, a little bit wider, and a little bit faster, but that doesn't make them a new, interesting device. Similarly, Microsoft's new operating system Windows 10 has been installed by millions and has gotten pretty impressive reviews, but it doesn't completely overhaul Microsoft's image or give traditional PC users something to get ravenously excited over.
A Chance for Survival?
There will always be a tiny portion of the population who uses desktop devices exclusively, but that hardly counts as a reason for survival. To "survive" in any real sense in the tech world means attracting new buyers who haven't already become dependent on one type of device. In order to do that, PCs (and tablets) have to venture into unfamiliar territory by unveiling some kind of functionality that takes the world by surprise. PCs need excitement, and some increased level of utility, or there's nothing that can stop their inevitable decline.
Personally, I believe that there's nothing that can be done to save the PC. Its reputation is too fixed, and Microsoft is too worried about preserving its older iterations of Windows to introduce any truly revolutionary functionality. Given the fact that mobile traffic is still continuing to rise and PCs become less useful by the day, I'd imagine that the next few years will finally witness the "death" of the PC--when shipments and sales pale in comparison to those of mobile and wearable devices.