The presidential election is just over a year away, and two things are becoming clear. First, Republicans have a lackluster field of candidates. Second, the issue that will be driving the campaign is high unemployment. The question is, which one of these factors will be more impactful in 2012? To me the answer is obvious: jobs.
Let me explain.
While every Democrat I know is giddy that the Tea Party favorites -- who are completely outside the mainstream -- are currently leading the Republican field for president, our plan for victory cannot be to count on the GOP to nominate a right-wing hardliner to challenge Barack Obama. Voters are desperate for jobs. And when the American people are desperate for employment, we all have to be concerned that a Tea Party Republican could win.
So what can President Obama do to help lower unemployment? While there will be no magic bullet, the president does have some good options to preserve existing jobs and creating new ones.
First, he can stop his administration from implementing and promoting regulations that stifle the job market. For example, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is considering creating a whole new class of "chemicals of concern," including the (much maligned) plastic chemicals phthalates and bishphenol-A (known as BPA).
Since there is no definitive science that these chemicals pose any danger to people, the EPA cannot ban them. Yet, by creating these "chemicals of concern," the agency is bending to the will of special interests that have no regard for other people's jobs.
Keep in mind, BPA and phthalates are used in everything from wind turbine parts, computers, medical equipment and DVDs. It's inevitable that this sort of action by EPA has the potential to decimate entire industries. In many rural economies, jobs at chemical plants support entire families. Eliminating those jobs may please a few special interests, but they will not help President Obama's reelection chances. If these chemicals are dangerous, then the EPA should ban them. If they are safe, thousands of good jobs should be protected.
The EPA is also causing consternation with labor unions, concerned that new government regulations on coal mining will devastate industries in West Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Democratic stalwarts like those in the United Mine Workers union are predicting up to a quarter million lost jobs if the EPA follows through on its proposed regulations. President Obama needs to protect those jobs, especially in such critical states to the 2012 election.
Second, President Obama needs to work with Congress to find ways to incentivize businesses (both big and small) to hire more workers. We know that many of America's largest employers are enjoying record profits, but they are not hiring laid off workers or making large investments into research and development which would also create jobs. To address this, the Obama administration and Capitol Hill need to find ways to promote tax incentives that encourage companies to think long-term and hire more employees -- and eliminate tax breaks that companies just translate into record profits and dividends.
I know, with the current Republican leadership this won't be easy to do. Especially because the Tea Partiers and the GOP presidential hopefuls seem willing to sandbag any deal that is good for the nation just because it is also good for the president's reelection prospects. But the White House and Congressional Democrats must continue to put forward a pro-growth agenda and hope the American voters catch on what the Republicans are up to.
I think that President Obama has a very good chance of being reelected. After all, he did kill Osama bin Laden, is getting us out of Iraq and Afghanistan and pulled this nation back from the brink of a complete and total economic meltdown (mostly caused by his predecessor). But the thing that keeps me up at night -- and I am sure keeps the president's campaign team up at night as well -- is the prospect of high unemployment. If voters think Democrats cannot create jobs, they could support a Republican no matter what. And that is a scary prospect, especially when you look at who may be the Republican candidate in 2012.
Ronnie Shows is a former Blue Dog Democratic Congressman from Mississippi