NCAA First Round 2011: Predictions Toughest To Make

Toughest NCAA Tournament First Round Match-Ups

With the 2011 NCAA Tournament days away and March Madness in the air, one thing is on everyone's mind: brackets.

Filling out the annual tournament bracket is an art in-and-of itself. But sometimes even the most experienced veterans don't quite know who to pick in a close situation. But don't freak out over your 8/9 picks just yet.

We've broken down some of the closest March match-ups below, with who the odds favor and the strengths and weaknesses of each team. Scroll down to see if you can find the answer to the pick that's driving you crazy.

Did we miss one you'd like more information on? Tell us in comments.

Missouri (11) and Cincinnati (6)

Missouri (23-10, 8-8 Big 12) seems to have a pretty clear edge over the Cincinnati Bearcats (25-8, 11-7 Big East) for their 9:15 p.m. EST Thursday match-up. AccuScore puts the Mizzou Tigers as 55.1 percent favorites, but 6 of the Bearcats' 8 losses came at the hands of top 25 teams.

Richmond (12) and Vanderbilt (5)

Richmond (27-7, 13-3 A 10) faces off against Vanderbilt (23-10, 9-7 SEC) at 4:10 p.m. EST Thursday, and despite their seedings AccuScore actually has the Richmond Spiders as a slight favorite, 54.1 to 45.9. Both teams have been looking at similar shooting percentages, though the Spiders have been a bit hotter from behind the 3-point line. However, especially if Richmond doesn't shoot well, Vanderbilt's slightly stronger rebounding may play a big role in this game.

Temple (7) Penn State (10)

Despite their close seedings, AccuScore puts the Temple Owls (25-7, 14-2 A 10) as clear 68 percent favorites over the Penn State Nittany Lions (19-14, 9-9 Big Ten). The Lions only took down one opponent (Wisconsin) that remained in the top 25 at season's end. The Owls however, regardless of their strong season, only beat one ranked team (they played 3), and aren't really statistically ahead of the Lions by that much, except in terms of turnovers. The two face off Thursday at 2:10 p.m. EST.

Wisonsin (4) and Belmont (13)

This game's almost even. The Wiscosin Badgers (23-8, 13-5 Big Ten) barely edge out the Belmont Bruins (30-4, 19-1 A-Sun) in AccuScore predictions, 50.8 to 49.2. While the Bruins and Badgers have been shooting pretty much even before the 7:27 p.m. EST Thursday match-up, the Bruins have a slightly 3-point average, and the Badgers are averaging a turnover less per game. This will really be neck and neck and if either team pulls ahead in shooting or rebounding, they'll probably win.

George Mason (8) and Villanova (9)

This one's a bit easier than some of the other 8/9 match-ups. Villanova (21-11, 9-9 Big East) is the clear underdog here, while the George Mason Patriots (26-6, 16-2 CAA) are solid 61.8 percent favorites according to AccuScore. While the Big East may have made for a tougher season for Nova, Friday's 2:10 p.m. EST match-up against the Patriots will be against a team with superior season-long shooting and a much higher 3-point percentage.

Michigan (8) and Tennessee (9)

The Michigan Wolverines (20-13, 9-9 Big Ten) are almost even with the Tennessee Volunteers (19-14, 8-8 SEC), but Accuscore favors the Volunteers as just 51.7 percent favorities in the 12:40 p.m. EST Friday game. They're two big teams from two big conferences and have similar records. Right now it looks like the only thing separating the two is Scotty Hopson who leads both teams in point per game for the season with 17.4.

Butler (8) and Old Dominion (9)

In another close one, the Old Dominon Monarchs (27-6, 14-4 CAA) are slightly favored over the butler Bulldogs (23-9, 13-5 Horizon) in their 12:40 p.m. EST Thursday game. AccuScore predicts the Monarchs to be 56.9 percent favorites, which is fair considering how close their stats are. However, statistically OD is slightly stronger around the board, and if they play solidly they should come out on top.

UNLV (8) and Illinois (9)

The UNLV Runnin Rebels (24-8, 11-5 MWC) had a good season in the Midwest conference, but not that much better than the Illinois Fighting Illini had in the Big Ten (19-13, 9-9 Big Ten). Then again, four of their losses came at the hands of the same teams (San Diego State and BYU), both which finished in the top 10. It's a bit of a surprise that AccuScore favors the Illini as 53.6 percent favorites in the 9:20 p.m. EST Friday game, especially with their spotty track record this year, losing to both ranked and unranked teams.

Xavier (6) and Marquette (11)

Accuscore considers the Xavier Musketeers (24-7, 15-1 A 10) solid 58.8 percent favorites against the Marquette Golden Eagles (20-14, 9-9 Big East) for their 7:27 p.m. EST Friday night match-up, but the two don't actually seem that far apart. The Musketeers are shooting and rebounding better than the Golden Eagles, but Marquette is playing a bit tighter team ball, and is among the top 20 assist teams in the NCAA.

St. John's (6) and Gonzaga (11)

St. John's Red Storm (21-11, 12-6 Big East) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (24-9, 11-3 WCC) face off 9:45 p.m. EST Thursday in one of the closer games of the first round. AccuScore puts the Bulldogs just ahead as 56.4 percent favorites, but St. John's finished the season strong with big wins over Pitt (who was ranked 4 at the time) and Villanova (14), before a tough late loss to Syracuse (11) in the Big East Tournament. Besides a slight statistical advantage, Gonzaga only beat one ranked opponent all season, and that was Saint Mary's, who they defeated for the West Coast Conference title. No top 25 teams came out of the WCC this season.

UCLA (7) and Michigan State (10)

Statistically The UCLA Bruins (22-10, 13-5 Pac-10) look good going into this 9:20 p.m. EST Thursday game, but AccuScore puts the Michigan State Spartans (19-14, 9-9 Big Ten) clearly ahead as 57.2 percent favorites. Michigan State had one of the strongest schedules (probably making them the favorites), facing 12 ranked teams as compared to UCLA's 4. The Spartans also shoot more 3-pointers and commit almost 3 less turnovers per game, which, along with a big presence in the paint, will likely give them the edge.

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