Conservatives exult. Liberals despair. The public option is dead. Not one week ago that all seemed perfectly true. The question is what changed between then and Harry Reid's surprising pronouncement recently. After much consideration, I have come to conclude that the answer is absolutely nothing. Rather, the Obama agenda has simply entered Phase III, in which a calculating and effective administration strikes back.
Before delving Phase III, let's review what has already happened. Phase I was Camelot: Obama and team used blinding speed and overwhelming public popularity to push through reforms. GM and Chrysler were put into bankruptcy and taken right back out (in record time). The financial system was stabilized via huge federal intervention, albeit one that has not resulted in sufficient reform. Foreign policy was overhauled to generally good results. (One can reasonably argue that Lebanon stayed in the Western camp because of the Cairo speech.)
Phase II was moderation and side stepping the tea bags. Obama backed off on some on some his campaign pledges, like gays in the military. Such sacrifices make those of us on the left unhappy, but they also rob the religious right of rallying cries. In addition, the president proved his 'moderate chops' by acting like a leader of a grand coalition rather than the head of an overwhelming majority. Like so many others, I was lulled by this into thinking that the administration had lost its spine, but in reality we were all missing the strategy: let the teabaggers have their fiery, fleeting moment and burn out. They're not gone, but it would be shocking to see Dick Armey, Newt Gingrich and Fox News whip up such a frenzy again anytime soon.
So now we find ourselves in Phase III: Obama Strikes Back. The Republicans are still leaderless; their teabaggers have hung up their Lipton for the winter (with nothing to show for their summer of anti-love); and the Republican Congressional caucus has demonstrated that it simply will not agree to health care and finance reform under any circumstance. (It's not so much a brave voice of opposition as a thrashing cacophony of obstruction.) Meanwhile, two-thirds of Americans still want health care reform, and the Blue Dogs have come to understand that supporting a public option will not cost them their seats in 2010. Add all that up and you get meaningful, if imperfect, health care reform, this year. And once that's done, I think that we can look forward to an overhaul of the financial system as well.
Beyond that, all bets are off. My gay friends will still be denied their civil rights. Innocent Uigers will continue to languish in something GITMO-like. US soldiers will be dying in Afghanistan -- the once necessary war that has gone on too long. And of course, too many Americans will be without jobs. Nevertheless, important business of national significance will have have been conducted to our collective and mutual benefit. It's not perfect, but it's a start.