Nearly half of Republican women say they can't see themselves voting for Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton has a problem with male voters. And Americans may have hit peak polarization. This is HuffPollster for Friday, March 25, 2016.
TRUMP HAS A SERIOUS PROBLEM WITH WOMEN - Carrie Dann: "This month, about half (47 percent) of Republican female primary voters said they could not imagine themselves voting for Trump. (About 40 percent of male GOP primary voters said the same.) Compare that to their relative willingness to accept Trump's rivals. Only about three in ten female Republican voters say they can't imagine backing Ted Cruz (32 percent) and John Kasich (27 percent)....When it comes to the general electorate, Trump has an even more pronounced problem with female voters.Trump's favorability with women overall is a dismal 21 percent positive/ 70 (!) percent negative. With men, it's 28 percent positive/ 59 percent negative. And while women traditionally vote for Democratic candidates in larger numbers than men, data shows that a Trump nomination would exacerbate the issue for Republicans." [NBC]
Other polls show similar results - Crosstabs from two surveys released this week from CNN/ORC and Morning Consult give Trump an average 42 percent unfavorable rating among Republican women, significantly higher than Cruz or Kasich. [CNN/ORC, Morning Consult]
Women outside the GOP dislike Trump even more - Nearly seven in 10 female voters feel unfavorably toward Trump, according to an average of recent polls. About half of female voters have an unfavorable view of Cruz, and just over a third have an unfavorable view of Kasich. Trump's net favorability rating is also distinctly worse among women than his Republican rivals. Female voters are 42 points more likely to view him unfavorably than favorably, compared to Cruz (-17) and Kasich (+3). [Fox, Quinnipiac, CNN, Monmouth Morning Consult]
His unpopularity extends beyond women - According to HuffPost Pollster's average, Trump holds an average 31 percent favorability rating, making him the least-liked GOP candidate overall. Cruz has a 34 percent favorable rating, while Kasich has a 41 percent rating. [HuffPost]
Alienating female voters could cost Trump the general election - Jose DelReal and Jenna Johnson: "GOP strategists fear that Trump clinching the nomination could present an opportunity for Democrats, who are poised to choose the first female presidential nominee and who in past elections have accused Republicans of waging a 'war on women' over access to affordable women’s health care, abortion rights and pay equity….'Hillary Clinton is very, very vulnerable among this group of women that she needs to have as her base: independent women, and soft Republican women. She’s very vulnerable with them today,' [GOP strategist Katie] Packer said. 'Should we nominate Donald Trump, they will flock to her because they see him as someone who’s repulsive. And it’s not just about so-called ‘women’s issues,’ it’s about how he values women and about how he’s willing to make women feel to benefit himself.'” [WashPost]
CLINTON MAY HAVE A PROBLEM WITH MALE VOTERS - Dan Cassino: "One of the main reasons Clinton’s numbers are lower than they would be otherwise is gender role threat, which is costing her as much as 24 points among men in the likely match-up with likely Republican nominee Donald Trump in November…. In the study, a randomized experiment was embedded in an otherwise normal political survey of likely voters in New Jersey….This question was designed to remind people of disruption to traditional gender roles, without explicitly mentioning Clinton or a female president, and simulate the sorts of subtle gender-based attacks that can be expected when Clinton is a general election candidate. The effects of the gender role threat question are enormous. [M]en who weren’t asked about spousal income until after being asked about the Presidential election preferred Clinton over Trump, 49 to 33. However, those who were reminded about the threat to gender roles embodied by Clinton preferred Trump over Clinton, 50 to 42. Concerns about gender role threat shifted men from preferring Clinton by 16 to preferring Trump by 8, a 24 point shift." [LSE]
Already signs that her image is struggling with general election voter men: In an average of five recent polls, Clinton has a net -27 rating with men, compared to Sanders' average +1. Her rating among women, at a net 5 is comparatively better than men but still in negative territory. Sanders has an 11 percent net favorable rating among women.
AMERICANS ARE MORE POLARIZED THAN EVER - Lee Drutman: "For a long time in American politics, we've been trapped in a cycle of ever-escalating political polarization…. [T]he two parties have pulled apart to distances we've never seen before….[T]he split in the electorate has reached a historic level of divisiveness. But this is about to end. We've now hit peak polarization. The forces that have fueled the widening gap between the two political parties are now fueling fights within the two political parties….[I] in order for public polarization to persist, parties have to maintain tight enough message discipline among their elites to ensure that their voters only hear one main message. This is breaking down. Republicans are now in open warfare between Trump supporters and #NeverTrumpers. Democrats are far less divided, but internal rifts between their 'establishment' (Hillary Clinton) and "insurgent" (Bernie Sanders) wings are also real and likely lasting." [Vox]
HUFFPOLLSTER VIA EMAIL! - You can receive this daily update every weekday morning via email! Just click here, enter your email address, and click "sign up." That's all there is to it (and you can unsubscribe anytime).
FRIDAY'S 'OUTLIERS' - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-Voters think Hillary Clinton has more presidential qualities than Donald Trump. [CNN]
-Greg Sargent (D) writes that the GOP establishment think Trump will be a disaster for the party, but Republican voters disagree. [WashPost]
-Lonna Atkeson discusses how party "position" affects general voter turnout. [Vox]
-Jonathan Bernstein outlines how Donald Trump could still lose the nomination. [Bloomberg]
-Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley assess Trump's odds of reaching 1,237 delegates by convention time. [Center for Politics]
-Rebecca Berg notes an open convention could also create a chaotic vice presidential selection process. [RCP]
-Seventy-two percent of Jewish Americans have an unfavorable view of both Trump and Ted Cruz. [Gallup]
-A recent study find that women and minorities are penalized when they promote diversity in the workplace. [HBR]
-Roll Call profiles PPP's Tom Jensen. [Roll Call]