Some troubling, albeit early, polling news came on Wednesday for Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.), and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which is supporting him.
The Republican turned Democrat is in a virtual tie for the prospective 2010 election with the front-running Republican senatorial candidate in the state, the former president of the Club for Growth, Pat Toomey.
According to a Quinnipiac University survey of Pennsylvanians, Specter is preferred by 45 percent of voters, Toomey by 44 percent. Slightly more than two months ago, that margin was 53 to 33 percent.
Making matters a bit more troubling for Specter, 49 percent of voters said he did not deserve reelection, while 46 percent disapproved of the job he was doing. It is the highest disapproval rating he has ever recorded.
The numbers seem driven by the fact that Specter still hasn't fully secured the trust of Keystone State Democrats. Despite backing the president's agenda on health care reform and the nomination of Judge Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court, the longtime senator remains pressured from the progressive community, which now has a viable alternative candidate in Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.). In the same Quinnipiac survey, 23 percent of registered Democrats said they preferred Sestak, 55 percent said Specter.
And, unlike past elections, Specter seems to have lost his traditional bipartisan appeal. Republicans, who see the senator as having abandoned them politically and philosophically, prefer Toomey by a 82 percent to 11 percent margin. Specter is even losing among Independents who back Toomey 46 percent to 42 percent.
Perhaps the most difficult to explain disparity, however, is seen when voters are segregated by gender. Men prefer Toomey by a margin of 52 percent to 39 percent. Women are nearly the reverse, preferring Specter by a margin of 50 percent to 37 percent.