The Ol' Wildcatter is wiping away the dismal dust of a Hoosier victory in the NCAAs from the Little Smart Pill Machine, to give you a preview of the upcoming Likely Party Primary Losers. The following is strictly for amusement; please, no wagering.
So last week the Little Smart Pill Machine had a good run, despite forgetting to call Missouri at all (that's what happens sometimes). But we found a Little Blue Smart Pill behind the credenza that said 'Missouri: CROATOAN,' so nothing ventured, nothing lost. Overall the Ol' Wildcatter went 12-1-1, missing Illinois and not calling the Virgin Islands uncommitted slate -- damn islands again.
Okay, let's get started (with apologies to Leonard Postoasties!)
March 22
Arizona Primary: The Party Decides thesis gets two big tests out in Deseret -- the big prize is a passel of 58 GOP delegates. It's the Joe Arpaio primary, as the Trump campaign comes to its anti-immigration, check-your-papers, force-and-order homeland. Are there enough evangelicals, true movement conservatives, and Mormons in Arizona to deliver for Cruz? No. (On the Democratic side, things just aren't white enough for Bernie.)
WILDCATTERS' LOSER (Democratic Primary): Bernie Sanders
WILDCATTERS' LOSER (Republican Primary): Ted Cruz
Idaho Caucus (Democrats): We called up the Own Private Idaho Democrat . She's voting for Hillary.
WILDCATTERS' LOSER (Democratic Caucus): Bernie Sanders.
Utah Caucuses: The Donald asks: Is Bishop Mittens really a Mormon? Wait, he was joking! It's a joke! A yhuge joke! Polling shows Cruz way up, indicating that he's demonstrating crossover appeal by getting a U.S. senator to support his presidential bid. The Democratic Socialist Party caucus is about 90% white, and mainly urban. Poll tracks show Hillary running less than eight points up - when polls miss, Hillary is usually under 50 and Bernie is over 40.
WILDCATTERS' LOSER (Democratic Caucus): Hillary Clinton
WILDCATTERS' LOSER (Republican Caucus): Donald Trump
March 26
Alaska Caucus (Democrats): They give away free money in Alaska. Free stuff! That alone should make Sanders a prohibitive favorite.
WILDCATTERS' LOSER (Democratic Caucus): Hillary Clinton
Hawaii Caucus (Democrats): We've given up on forecasting islands.
WILDCATTERS' LOSER (Democratic Caucus): Bernie Sanders
Washington State Caucus (Democrats): It's the only state that has to say 'we're a state, dangit!' Can Hillary win one of the hippest state in 'Murica (though Belltown is only the #7-best neighborhood according to the Utne reader)? Can she win when the primary electorate is (at most) 15 percent minority and then predominantly not African-American? We're betting not. (Also, the Little Smart Pill Machine says that Ted Cruz wins Vancouver).
WILDCATTERS' LOSER (Democratic Caucus): Hillary Clinton
April 5
Wisconsin Primary: Is Wisconsin Donald Trump's Ukraine? And is the Ukraine weak? Is the Ukraine a game? Low polling numbers, Reince Preibus's hometown, and with an establishment that is built on discontent, Scott Walker's Wisconsin is tough turf for Trump in a three-way. If the establishment can't stop Trump here, the quarterback is toast! The great question is, will Wisconsin's scrambled egg mess of a registration system accommodate the crazy crossover expected on April 5? On the other side, Hillary is consistently tied here. The Democratic Socialist electorate is only about 10% minority and then mainly down in Milwaukee. Look for Berning Couches in Madison on primary night.
WILDCATTERS' LOSER (Democratic Primary): Hillary Clinton
WILDCATTERS' LOSER (Republican Primary): Donald Trump
Holding Tank: The Wyoming Democrat will caucus; Oklahoma NCAA title run; Big Apple Primary on the 241st anniversary of Battle of Lexington and Concord; Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, unpledged Pennsylvania, Rhode Island; waiting for Morning Joe to call -- tweet Joe and tell him to call us -- we'll sing "Love Shack"!
Get me out of here Percy!