Voters see many aspects of life in the U.S. worsening. Trump and Clinton supporters are fundamentally divided on the nation’s biggest issues. And analysts disagree about this year’s minority vote. This is HuffPollster for Friday, November 11, 2016.
VOTERS DON’T THINK THERE’S BEEN MUCH PROGRESS SINCE 2008 - Pew Research Center: “Overall, relatively few voters thought the country had made progress on most issues since 2008. The economy was the only one of seven about which roughly as many voters said things had gotten better (38%) as worse (43%) over this period. Roughly two-in-ten (18%) thought it has stayed about the same. But more voters said the job situation in the U.S. has gotten worse (44%) than said it has gotten better (35%), and by nearly two-to-one, voters were more likely to think the country’s security from terrorism has gotten worse than to think it has gotten better (45% vs. 23%). Majorities of voters said race relations (67%), the country’s standing in the world (61%), crime (57%) and the immigration situation (55%) in this country had each gotten worse since 2008. Trump voters took a uniformly negative view of progress over the past eight years: Majorities of Trump supporters said things had declined in all seven areas – from 87% who said the U.S. standing in the world had gotten worse to 69% who said the same about the job situation. By contrast, Clinton supporters gave mixed views of the progress the country has made over the last eight years.” [Pew Research]
Clinton and Trump supporters also disagree on issues’ importance - More from Pew: “Fully 79% of Trump voters said illegal immigration was a ‘very big’ problem in the country today, while just two-in-ten Clinton voters (20%) said the same. Nearly three-quarters of Trump supporters (74%) saw terrorism as a very big problem, compared with 42% of Clinton supporters. Crime and job opportunities, including job opportunities for working-class Americans, also were rated as more serious problems by Trump than Clinton voters. Conversely, climate change ranked as a leading problem among Clinton supporters (66% cited it as a very big problem), but near the bottom among Trump voters (14%). Clinton backers also saw gun violence and the gap between rich and poor as much more serious problems than did Trump supporters…. About half of Clinton voters (53%) said racism was a major problem, and 37% said that about sexism. That compared with 21% and 7%, respectively, among Trump voters. Among 13 issues, the gaps were fairly modest on only two – drug addiction and the condition of the nation’s roads, bridges and other infrastructure. Majorities of Trump supporters (62%) and Clinton backers (56%) said drug addiction was a very big problem. Clinton backers (46%) were somewhat more likely than Trump supporters (36%) to cite infrastructure as a major problem.” [Pew Research]
EXIT POLLS SHOW TRUMP GOT MORE SUPPORT FROM PEOPLE OF COLOR THAN ROMNEY - Karthick Ramakrishnan: “On the matter of politics and race, Donald Trump’s victory will provide plenty of fodder for opinion columns, in-depth survey analyses, fieldwork and historical studies…. Looking at the exit poll data from the 2016 election, and comparing them over time, the story on race and presidential voting gets a bit more complicated. One caveat about the national exit polls: They are designed to broadly represent the American electorate… [and] may not be precise in estimating the absolute support of subgroups in a given election. But the comparisons across years should give us a decent sense of how those groups move from year to year. It’s also important to note that polling firms Latino Decisions and Asian American Decisions found much higher support for Clinton among Latinos and Asian American voters in a survey fielded in the week prior to Election Day. As I’ve noted before, it’s possible that differential turnout on Election Day among Democrats and Republicans might account for part of this discrepancy…. Comparing yesterday’s results with 2012... shows that Trump actually performed slightly worse among white voters than Mitt Romney did. He did, however, perform better than Romney among blacks, Latinos and Asian Americans... When we compare Republican nominee performances in prior open elections, we see that Trump made important gains among black voters as well as whites…. Time will tell how well the national exit polls reflect the vote choices of women, Latinos, African Americans, and Asian Americans. Still, comparisons of the national exit polls over time reveal some important, and potentially unsettling, questions about what we presume to be true about voting among America’s racial minorities.” [WashPost]
But other surveys dispute that finding - Gary Segura and Matt Barreto: “The exit poll reports of the Latino vote are profoundly and demonstrably incorrect. The methodology used for this poll systematically misrepresents all voters of color...The Latino Decisions poll of 5,600 extremely high propensity Latino voters in the nights immediately prior to the election reported 79 percent of Latino voters supporting Secretary Clinton, 18 percent supporting Donald Trump, and 3 percent other….It’s early and lots of results are still being posted, but a careful examination of precincts with lots of Latino voters, drawn from across the country, show an increase in turnout and an increase in Democratic vote share.” [HuffPost]
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FRIDAY’S ‘OUTLIERS’ - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-Steve Shepard looks at the questions pollsters are asking themselves in the wake of Tuesday’s miss. [Politico]
-Harry Enten notes that 2016 saw record-level straight ticket voting. 
-Julia Azari sees echoes of the past in Donald Trump’s trajectory. 
-Erin Pettigrew explains how Facebook’s metrics saw Trump coming. [Medium]
-Many Trump and Clinton supporters have reversed their view of whether the country is on the right track. [Morning Consult]