Long story short - Knight and Day, Fox's action-comedy directed by James Mangold and starring Tom Cruise and Cameron Diaz, is set to open two days earlier than intended. Instead of directly facing off against Grown Ups (which stars Adam Sandler and every major star who has ever been in an Adam Sandler picture), the somewhat well-buzzed project will now open on Wednesday, June 23rd. Long reason short - Adam Sandler comedies generally open to about $35-40 million, and the track records of Cameron Diaz and Tom Cruise means that the action picture probably won't win the weekend. Besides, the move gives it two more days before the 1,600 pound gorilla known as Twilight Saga: Eclipse takes its best shot at The Dark Knight's $203 million five-day record (the five-day opening weekend record-holder is Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, with $200 million). As far as how well Knight and Day will open, you can bet that the tabloids are itching to tear Cruise apart when the film doesn't open to blockbuster levels. But guess what? It probably won't.
Like Harrison Ford and Tom Hanks, Tom Cruise made his name as Hollywood's biggest and most consistent star when a $15 million opening weekend was very good, a $25 million weekend was fantastic, and a $100 million total was an unqualified smash hit. Cruise has had six opening weekends above $25 million. They are Minority Report ($35 million), Interview with the Vampire ($36 million), Mission: Impossible ($45 million), Mission: Impossible III ($47 million), Mission: Impossible II ($57 million), and War of the Worlds ($64 million). The next highest are four films (The Last Samurai, Collateral, The Firm, and Vanilla Sky) that have opened around $24-25 million. Of the six biggest opening weekends, two of them were Steven Spielberg sci-fi action pictures, three of them were Mission: Impossible films, and one of them was a controversial adaptation of a beloved novel. So you take away the pre-established properties and Cruise's biggest original-material openings are Minority Report and Collateral, which opened about $10 million apart from each other. Oh, and two of those openings (War of the Worlds and Mission: Impossible III) occurred in the heat of Cruise's couch-jumping public-relations meltdown.
For a final summation, including the only movie star with more $100 million hits than Cruise, read the rest of this article at Mendelson's Memos.