03/18/2010 05:12 am ET Updated May 25, 2011

The Housing Crash Has Already Resumed, Say Bears

Investor Whitney Tilson has another take on the August house-price numbers, which sent housing bulls into spasms of glee a few days ago.

Whitney's concern is that the sequential increase in prices in August was less than the sequential increase in July. This, Whitney believes, is the start of the seasonal downturn that will take house prices down another 10%-15% by the middle of next year.

Whitney has argued since the spring that the recovery in house prices has been a "head fake" and that this fall will bring us crashing back to reality. I think his argument has merit, although the housing recovery has been surprisingly strong thus far.

To back up his argument, Whitney uses a chart that shows the typical sequential pattern, which has monthly growth peaking in the spring and early summer and then turning down. You can check it out here >

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