No Advertising Industry Recovery Anticipated Until 2011.
Media economist Jack Myers is today releasing adjusted 2009 estimates for total ad spending in 18 media categories, forecasting -13.3% investments in national and local media, adjusted downward from Myers March 2009 estimates of -12.6%. For 2010, Myers is forecasting continued negative year-to-year performance in 12 of 18 measured media categories, with overall declines in total ad spending of 4.8%. Jack Myers Media Business Report has been issuing regular ad spending forecasts since 1986 and is recognized for its accurate and visionary outlook on media economics.
For 2009 broadcast network television ad spending, Myers is estimating 9.0% declines compared to 2008, adjusted from Myers' March estimates of -6.0%. 2009 cable network TV ad spending estimates have been adjusted downward to -3.5% from +1.0%.
For 2010, broadcast network television ad spending is forecast to be down 10.0% and network cable television is forecast to decline 0.5%, but Myers projects cable TV will surge with 7.0% growth in 2011 and 10.0% increases in 2011. Broadcast network television is forecast to stabilize long-term, with projected 3.5% revenue declines in 2011 and 0.8% declines in 2012.
Total Internet advertising is projected to decline 0.5% in 2009, increase less than 1.0% in 2010, and then to enter a period of sustained mid to high single digit growth in 2011. Details on search, display, video and social network advertising are published in Myers' detailed report which is being e-mailed to corporate subscribers to Myers' weekly economic analysis. For 2010, Myers projects the major losers will be custom publishing (down 18.0%), yellow pages (down 10%) and newspaper advertising (down another 9.0% after sustaining a 22.5% decline in 2009 and 16.8% drop in 2008).
Total advertising, direct marketing, promotion, event and PR investments are projected to decline 6.9% in 2009 from $751.8 billion to $699.7 billion. 2010 is projected to be the fourth consecutive year advertising will suffer year-to-year losses and the third consecutive year overall marketing investments will decline. This is the first time since the 1930s depression there have been sustained multi-year advertising and marketing spending declines. Total advertising investments in 2009 will be $201.8 billion and in 2010 are projected at $192.2 billion, down from $232.9 billion in 2008.
Myers is forecasting a slow turn-around in combined advertising and marketing investments of slightly more than 1.0% in 2011. For 2012, he is forecasting 5.3% ad spending growth. Between 1963 and 2007, advertising grew at an average annual rate of more than 5.0% and total marketing investments expanded at an average annual rate of more than 17.0%.
The major bright light for 2010 is political spending, which will have a significant positive impact on local market ad spending, especially impacting on local television, local radio and newspaper advertising.
Disclosure: Jack Myers provides proprietary economic insights and advisory services for several media, advertising, marketing and investment services companies.
ABOUT JACK MYERS MEDIA BUSINESS REPORT:
Jack Myers Media Business Report is published by Myers Publishing LLC, which has been providing economic analyses and strategic business guidance to media companies, marketers and agencies since 1984. Jack Myers Media Business Report, published weekly, is available exclusively to corporate subscribers on an annual basis. Myers Publishing also publishes MediaBizBloggers.com, which provides a platform for thought leadership to media and advertising industry executives and is also distributed daily via e-mail to 12,000 industry executives. www.MediaBizBloggers.com is underwritten 100% by Myers Publishing and does not accept paid advertising. Myers Publishing is headquartered in Rhinebeck, NY.