Health Care Spending Driving Federal Budget: Nate Silver

Health Care And Entitlement Spending Eating Up The Federal Budget
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US President Barack Obama makes a statement about fiscal cliff negotiations from the White House December 31, 2012 in Washington, DC. Lawmakers in Washington continue to work on a last minute compromise to pass legislation to avoid a fiscal cliff of tax hikes and spending cuts in the United State's federal budget. AFP PHOTO/Brendan SMIALOWSKI (Photo credit should read BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images)
US President Barack Obama makes a statement about fiscal cliff negotiations from the White House December 31, 2012 in Washington, DC. Lawmakers in Washington continue to work on a last minute compromise to pass legislation to avoid a fiscal cliff of tax hikes and spending cuts in the United State's federal budget. AFP PHOTO/Brendan SMIALOWSKI (Photo credit should read BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images)

Government spending has risen a lot over the decades no matter who you measure it. A big share of the increase is due to -- you guessed it -- escalating health care spending.

Over at the FiveThirtyEight blog, the New York Times' stats guru Nate Silver digs into the trends in federal, state and local government spending for four broad categories. Nothing too surprising, maybe, but it's worth reviewing.

On health care, Silver neatly lays out where we are and where we're headed if we stay on the current trajectory.

The growth in health care expenditures, for better or worse, is not just a government problem: private spending on health care is increasing at broadly the same rates and is eating up a larger and larger share of economic activity. It's an immensely complicated problem, but the arithmetic is simple: if we can't slow the rate of growth in health care expenditures, we'll either have to raise taxes, cut other government spending or continue to run huge deficits. Or we could hope to grow our way out of the problem, but health care expenditures may be impeding private-sector growth as well.

The whole post, which breaks down changes in government spending on entitlements, infrastructure and services, the military and interest payments, is merits a read.

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