We have logged another 16 new statewide presidential polls in since yesterday's noon update, including multiple surveys in the key swing battleground states of Ohio (3 new surveys), Michigan (2), Nevada (1) and Colorado (1).
Of the 16 new polls, 7 were tracking polls that followed up on surveys by the same pollsters conducted before the Republican convention. Five (5) of the 7 show movement of at least a percentage point in McCain's direction. However, none of these surveys made enough of a difference to shift any of our classifications since yesterday. Ohio, Michigan, Nevada and Colorado all remain firmly in the yellow toss-up category.
Ohio, with three new polls including one from the well-regarded University of Cincinnati "Ohio Poll," is worth further discussion. The Quinnipiac survey released yesterday had Obama leading by five points (49% to 44%) and actually increasing his support since before the conventions. However, the three news surveys all show McCain with a small mathematical edge: +4 on the Univ. of Cincinnati (48% to 44%), +4 on Strategic Vision (also 48% to 44%), +1 on Insider Advantage (48% to 47%).
Our trend estimate for Ohio remains tight, although McCain has slipped very slightly ahead of Obama (45.3% to 45.1%) for the first time in several months.