THE BLOG
06/01/2008 01:41 pm ET Updated May 25, 2011

CNN's Puerto Rico Exit poll

The Page has posted a few numbers from the first wave of interviews from what he describes as "CNN's unilateral" Puerto Rico exit poll. I checked, and I'm told that Edison-Mitofsky -- the firm that usually does all of the exit polling for the consortium of the five major television networks and the Associated Press -- is conducting a Puerto Rico exit poll today exclusively for CNN.

The polls close at 3:00 p.m. Eastern time. A link to CNN's exit poll tabulations should appear here at that time. Further updates (and don't expect many) will be in reverse chronological order.

10:00 p.m - One last update for tonight: The final count in Puerto Rico, with 100% of precincts reporting, shows Hillary Clinton defeating Barack Obama by 68% to 32% margin, or by 141,662 of 384,578 votes cast.

Some of our readers have been debating the meaning of the turnout that was lower than some expected, but the biggest consequence of the turnout is that Barack Obama remains ahead in most counts of the "popular vote" even with Puerto Rico included. As ABC polling director Gary Langer explains tonight, Clinton only leads "by counting all her Michigan votes, and zero there for Obama." Adding Michigan's undeclared votes to Obama ahead would erase even that advantage.

The big problem with counting "the popular vote," is that so many different permutations exist for counting it, an issue I've written about twice previously. If you liked the Jay Cost spreadsheet that I linked to earlier -- the one with 15 different ways of counting the popular vote -- you will love the updgrade from FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver. He has posted a "Popular Vote Scenario Tester" tonight that provides 96 different ways of computing the Democratic "popular vote."

4:15 - The CNN exit poll tabulations have revised, presumably reflecting the gradual replacement in the estimate model of exit poll interviews with actual votes in the sampled precincts. The current estimate looks to be roughly 69% for Clinton and 31% for Obama.

3:24 - Thatcher and Uri ask in the comments about the likely margin and its impact on "the popular vote." When it comes to the Puerto Rico turnout and margins, I have no idea. The cable news networks will have the most current information.

As for the impact on the many potential "popular vote" totals, the best "what-if" tool I know of is the Jay Cost spreadsheet. You need to fill in the margins for West Virginia (147,410 for Clinton), Kentucky (249,436 for Clinton) and Oregon (148,458 for Obama -- all totals from the New York Times tallies).

3:04 - For those wondering (I was), MSNBC's call w(as apparently based (at least in part) on a telephone poll conducted over the last few days. They will have results from that shortly.

3:00 Both CNN and MSNBC call Puerto Rico for Clinton, CNN "by a wide margin" based on their exclusive exit poll, MSNBC by a "significant" margin. The initial CNN exit poll shows a 70% to 30% margin among both men and women, the easiest extrapolation of the primary season.

2:56 - MSNBC reports they expect a "low voter turnout," perhaps as low as 400,000.

2:45 p.m. Bill Schneider on CNN just announced that those who made up their minds in the last week went for Hillary Clinton 67% to 33%. That presumably means a comfortable Clinton win today, given her lead in the two pre-election polls. But we'll see.

Nate (the blogger formerly known as Poblano) had some similar speculation based on an earlier Schneider report earlier this afternoon.