THE BLOG
11/04/2008 09:07 pm ET Updated May 25, 2011

Live Blogging Election Night 3

Picking up from the previous entry. We'll try to keep the updates in reverse chronological order. All times are Eastern.

2:16 am - 11/5 [Mark] We are going to take a break for a few hours and get some sleep, so the map will not reflect any further network calls until we are awake later this morning.

11:73 [Mark] NBC Projects Obama the winner of Nevada. And with that, both Brian and I are ready to wrap up the live-blogging -- at least for this thread. Eric, Justin, Mark Lindeman and I will continue to update the map into the wee hours, and of course, we hope you will continue to leave comments.

11:33 [Brian] Young voters did not appear to make up a significantly larger share of the national electorate this year, but Obama did significantly better among 18-29 year olds compared to Kerry in 2004. Kerry won just 54% of the 18-29 year old vote while Obama won 66%.

11:17 [Mark] NBC projects Obama the winner of Florida.

11:11 [Mark] As I'm sure you all know by now, with the 11:00 projections in, all of the networks have projected Barack Obama as the president elect.

10:55 [Mark] PPP's Tom Jansen has the historic numbers for the six counties still out in North Carolina.

10:51 [Mark] Our commenters see it first: Fox calls Virginia for Obama.

10:49 [Brian] More on the changing western electorate. In Nevada, 10% of the electorate was Hispanic in 2004. This year's exit poll is showing a 50% increase with Hispanics now making up 15% of Nevada's electorate. And Nevada Hispanics are even more supportive of Obama than those in most other states as he is getting 75% of the Hispanic vote there. Are Democrats reaping the benefits of having moved Nevada up in the primary calendar, thereby leading Obama and Clinton to spend significant resources mobilizing voters there?

10:45 [Mark] I'm not sure I got this verbatim, but Republican consultant and NBC analyst Mike Murphy had the line of the night. He expressed an opinion that Florida, Virginia and possibly even North Carolina will got to Obama in the next hour based on "back of the envelope calculations done with the help of my colleague, Dr. Smirnoff."

10:27 [Mark] And speaking of our friend Chuck Todd. My Atlantic colleague Marc Ambinder also heard Todd say that "the key group was college educated whites...shifting from Bush in 2004 to ... a tie.. in 2008." Brian notices that if you use the massive exit poll compilation that Ron Brownstein put together for National Journal, you can see that the Democratic percentage of the vote "hasn't budged above 44% in any of the past 5 presidential elections and Obama has it up at 49%."

081104 NJ whites education.png

10:25 [Mark] I got distracted, but PHGrl blogged it for me: "Chuckie T. on msnbc just said they probably will not call indiana, NC & virgina without having all the votes in... no projections."

10:19 [Brian] In 2004, the electorate was 37% Democrat, 37% Republican, and 26% independent. This year, national exit polls showing 40% Democrat, 32% Republican, and 28% independent.

10:14 [Mark] Same grain of salt as below about early exit poll estimates, but note that the current estimate weighting the Montana estimates show a dead heat, with Obama +1.

10:07 [Mark] With the continuing warning that the initial estimates have been a bit optimistic for Obama in some states, note that the vote estimate used to weight the Arizona exit poll tabulations currently shows a 49-49% tie.

9:54 [Brian] In addition to the New Mexico figures I mentioned earlier, another good case in point in how the changing demographics of the West are affecting the political balance is evident in Colorado. Hispanics made up 8% of the electorate there in 2004, but the early Colorado exit polls are showing that Hispanics are 13% of the state's electorate this year.

9:47 [Mark] Listening to Chuck Todd on MSNBC who just made this point about the challenge that early voting in Florida poses for the decision desk analysts: "All of this early vote that came in early makes it difficult to model the precinct data."

9:43 [Brian] One group that Obama did not make major inroads with was white born-again Christians. In 2004, Kerry won 21% of this demographic. According to the national exit polls, Obama did just a little better, winning 25% of that vote this year.

9:37 [Mark] Our old friend Mark Lindeman, who is hard at work right now gathering the result that we are using to update the map, advises that the most recent update of the Indiana exit poll tabulation changes the underlying vote estimate from a six point Obama lead to dead even.

9:33 [Brian] How did Obama win in Ohio? First, he won 98% of the African American vote? Second, he lost whites by narrower margins than Kerry. McCain won white men by just 6%. In 2004, Bush won them by 13%. McCain won white women by just 3% while Bush won them by 10%.

9:26 [Mark] And now NBC calls Ohio for Obama. Let's say the obvious: With losses in Ohio and Pennsylvania there is no realistic path to victory for McCain.

9:21 [Mark] As PHGirl's points out, Fox just called Ohio for Obama.

9:15 [Brian] According to the early New Mexico exit polls, Hispanics make up 40% of the electorate in that state. The figure was just 32% in 2004

9:06 [Mark] Ok, I'm back now from the Washington Post chat. Need to take a minute or two to catch up.