10/01/2008 06:48 am ET Updated May 25, 2011

Morning Update for 10/1

We have logged another dozen new statewide polls in the last 24 hours. Eight of these represent updates since the previous week or mid-September, and seven of the eight show movement toward Obama or away from McCain. Although none of the shifts were large enough to cause a change in status, the new surveys narrowed McCain's lead on our trend estimates by at least a half a percentage point in Ohio (+0.8), Florida (+0.6) and Indiana (+0.5).

2008-10-01 trend.jpg

The continuing movement in Obama's direction is evident on both the national and "all state poll" trend lines on the national forces chart (although Professor Franklin updated these mid-day yesterday.