Here are a few short but relevant updates to topics covered earlier in the week that I did not want to get lost at the bottom of older posts:
- Yesterday, here and in my column, I looked closely at the small percentage (10%) of 18-to-29-year-olds among the "likely voters" in the most recent USA Today/Gallup poll. Later, I also noted the different approach to modeling likely voters taken by the recent Time/AbtSRBI poll that appears to reduce the volatility in these early numbers.
One thing we overlooked in the Time poll: The self-identified "registered" voters included an even smaller percentage of 18-to-29-year-olds (9% - see QF1) than the "likely voters" in the USA Today/Gallup survey (10%), and six points fewer than the self-ID'd registered voters in the Gallup survey (15%).
- Earlier in the week, I also pointed to some data from the News Index surveys by the Pew Research Center to make the point that most voters in July are not following the campaign as a jury follows a trial. This passage in the CBS News analysis of their follow-up survey of uncommitted voters makes the point even more clearly:
One possible reason the uncommitted voters haven’t changed much: they’re paying much less attention to the campaign in the last few weeks.
When asked in mid-July how much attention they’d been paying to the 2008 campaign, generally, 45% said they’d paid a lot and just 14% said not much or none. When asked in this poll how much attention they’d been paying in the last few weeks, only 18% reported paying a lot lately.