As of this writing, the Pennsylvania Secretary of State reports that Hillary Clinton defeated Barack Obama yesterday by a 9.2% margin (54.6% to 45.4%) with 99.4% of precincts reported. Given rounding and small discrepancies some news organizations have been reporting the margin as either nine or ten points, but for the purposes of comparing the pollster's performance, we are close enough. Our final "standard" estimate based on all the public polls showed Clinton ahead by seven points. Considering that Clinton once again did better among those who made up their minds over the last three days (leading 58% to 42%) than those who decided earlier (52% to 48%), on average at least, the public polls did reasonably well.
Also, via Jon Cohen at the Washington Post, the current exit poll results by race and education: Clinton won college educated white voters six points (53% to 47%; they were 41% of all voters) and whites without a college degree by 40 points (70% to 30%; 40% of all voters). As such, Clinton did better among both groups than in the Quinnipiac polling I featured here, although college educated voters, both white and of all races, where a significantly bigger portion of the electorate as measured by the exit polls than in most of the pre-election polls.
Obama's performance within these subgroups was only slightly better than in Ohio, where Clinton won white non-college educated voters by 44 (71% to 27%) and white college educated voters by 7 (52% to 45%). However, the Pennsylvania numbers may still be subject to one more round of re-weighting, so stay tuned.
I hope to have more later, but for now, here are some links to poll related post-election coverage.
Exit poll and related analysis:
- ABC News/Langer: "Negative Campaign Tarnishes Clinton, Obama"
- Washington Post/Cohen and Agiesta: "Signs Indicate That Duels May Be Hurting Party"
- Politico/Kuhn: "Why Clinton Won Pennsylvania"
- Newport: What happened to the post-graduates in Pennsylvania?
- Newport/Gallup: "The Day After Pennsylvania"
- ABC News/Langer: "The Role of Race Revisited"
- CBS News: "Clinton - 'Tide is Turning' after PA Win"
- Washington Post/Cohen: "Little GOP Mischief in Penn."
- Jay Cost: "A Review of the Pennsylvania Primary"
- Arumi/First Read: "PA Results: Inside the Numbers"
Complaints about the continuing problems with early leaked exit poll numbers:
Other pollster related news:
- SurveyUSA's pollster scorecard for PA (delayed until counting is complete)
- PPP"s mea culpa
- Zogby"s victory lap
If you've seen other exit poll analysis or pollster related news, email me a link and I'll add it to the list.
[Updated with additional links]