While traveling in London this past week, I could not help but to bereminded of the enormous sacrifices that have been made by nations intimes of war. It seems as though every street has a memorial to aparticular war or regiment. (Most striking of all is The Cenotaph,an empty tomb that stands in the middle of Whitehall. Constructedshortly after the First World War, the tomb bears the inscription "TheGlorious Dead," words chosen by Rudyard Kipling to remember those whohave given their lives for each of their nations in all wars aroundthe world.) Indeed, as we approach the 100th anniversary of the startof the First World War it is worth reminding ourselves that wars aredifficult to control -- even if limited by intent or design. AsBarbara Tuchman reminds us in The Guns of August, it is doubtful thatat the outbreak of war in 1914 anyone would have predicted a war thatended with well over 10 million dead by its conclusion. If theexperience of the First and Second World Wars is not enough to remindus, then the experience of war in Afghanistan and Iraq -- both begunwith "limited" objectives and timelines -- should shake the world fromthe belief that wars can deliberately be limited with any degree ofcertainty.
The current tension between Israel and Iran, including incrediblyheated rhetoric calling for preemptive actions and assassinations iseerily reminiscent of the period before the summer of 1914, when thesense of "inevitability" of war seized national leaders. Israel feelsthat preemptive action against Iran may be needed to prevent anexistential threat -- Iran's acquisition of a nuclear weapon. WhileIran has not crossed the point of no return in becoming a nuclearstate, Israel may not be willing to risk that its own nuclearcapability could deter a nuclear armed Iran. Indeed, for Israel, anation whose collective memory includes the Holocaust, Iranian threatsof nuclear "extermination" may not seem idle threats. The point isthat the tinder is dry, the flints are primed, and we are on the brinkof war in the Middle-East -- a war that is likely to go well beyond theborders of Israel and Iran. The world cannot simply sit and wait forthe spark.
It is time for Israel and Iran to talk. It is time for Iran torecognize the state of Israel and to understand that acquiring anuclear weapon may make Iran less safe. Iran must allow IAEAinspectors to complete their inspection missions unhindered. If theIranian government refuses, then the Iranian people need to trulyconsider whether it is time to choose between their nation and theirleaders. This crisis is bigger than Khamenei or Ahmedinejad and theircontinued intransigence is threatening the Iranian people. For theirpart -- the Israelis must weigh the true consequences of preemptivewar and recognize that such action may be a greater risk to Israelilives than a nuclear armed Iran.
For the United States, this continuing crisis comes at a time when ournation is tired after over a decade of war in Afghanistan, atremendously costly struggle in Iraq, and a man-made humanitariandisaster in Syria precipitated by a despicable leader who may have tobe stopped through military force. Secretary of Defense Leon Panettaand Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Martin Dempsey havecorrectly explained the potential risks posed by a nuclear Iran aswell as the additional risks posed by pre-emptive military action byIsrael. In the end, military action will at best only delay Iran'snuclear aspirations. Therefore, these ambitions must be haltedthrough other means. The recent efforts at enhanced sanctions, aneffort including European participation, is a strong sign that theworld is committed to preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear state,while also avoiding the need for massive military action. It is not,as some would suggest, a matter of being willing to wage war to backup talk. It's a matter of knowing when a nation has no choice but togo to war. We have not exhausted all options just yet.
History is replete with as many examples of prudent military action asit is risks taken on behalf of peace. Our leaders must remember thatwe still go to war, as Thucydides wrote over 2000 years ago, out offear for our own security, justice and honor, and self-interest.There is certainly enough fear at this point, but it is time to takethe edge off rhetoric and move away from the certainty of conflict.All it will take is one misunderstanding, one accident, or one bungledaction for the Middle East to be plunged into a calamity. As BarbaraTuchman wrote almost fifty years ago, "War is the unfolding ofmiscalculations." Hopefully, someone in Tehran -- and in Tel Aviv -- isreading Tuchman.