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March 1, 2015

Is Hillary a Sure Thing in 2016?

You hear two competing stories about Hillary Clinton and the Democrats in 2016. According to the first, she has a lock on the nomination and the election. Hillary is sure to win the nomination, because there are no other plausible candidates, especially if Elizabeth Warren doesn't get in. And Clinton begins with a overwhelming money advantage. She wins the election because the Electoral College gives Blue states something close to a majority even before the campaign starts. The Republicans would have to run the table of every possible state. But the Republicans are deeply divided, with the candidates who appeal to the base far to the right of the general electorate. And the GOP Congress is rapidly alienating most moderate voters. Game, set, match to Hillary, correct? Well, not so fast.

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