The presidential campaigns of Hillary Clinton and John McCain have both issued pre-emptive announcements designed to dampen expectations and mute the fundraising successes of their competitors.
These announcements are the opening shots in what will be a two-week drive by all the candidates to either hype the amount of money they will report raising for the first half of the year - which ends on June 30 -- or, if results are disappointing, to downgrade their importance.
After this two-week period, each campaign will begin the detailed work of examining the line-by-line contributions and expenditures in their opponents' reports. On the contribution side, they will be looking for donations from questionable figures - for example, subjects of criminal inquiries, executives of anti-union construction firms, CEOs who laid off large numbers of workers, donors who have made racist or anti-Semitic remarks, and so forth.
The examination of campaign expenditures is more difficult, since is it is much easier to hide controversial spending. Law firms can be conduits for payments to private detectives conducting opposition research. Sums going to local political parties can be used to finance "walk-around" money to election-day workers. All kinds of expenditures are routinely masked by such descriptions as "monthly payment to American Express."
In 2004, the fundraising process at this stage - a competition dubbed "the money primary" - played a crucial role in helping to turn Howard Dean into a credible candidate, the leader in most polls up to that year's Iowa caucuses.
This year, one of the biggest money stories has been the huge success of Barack Obama, who has set such a high benchmark that he is widely expected to come in first once again - in terms of both money raised and the number of donors.
An additional surprise this year has been the overall success of Democratic candidates compared to their Republican counterparts. In the first quarter of 2007, the top three Democrats - Clinton, Obama and John Edwards - raised $66 million, compared to $53 million raised by McCain, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney.
Anticipating Obama's continued success, Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson on Thursday wrote a memo to supporters and the press:
"We expect to bring in about what we did in the First Quarter, or slightly more, which should put us in the range of $27 million. To put that figure in some perspective, it is more than any Democrat has ever raised in the second quarter of the 'off' year."
The $27 million is extraordinary, but Wolfson wants to prepare the public for the possibility that the Clinton record will be broken in a matter of days. In addition, Wolfson wants to raise expectations for Obama to the highest possible level in hopes that Obama will fall short -- a game played by all campaigns:
"We do expect Senator Obama to significantly outraise us this quarter. Bottom line is that both campaigns will raise a great deal of money and that we will have all the resources we need to compete and win," says Wolfson.
McCain, who came in behind both Romney and Giuliani in the first quarter, wrote a memo to supporters which was surprising in its besieged tone:
"Politics certainly is not a business of calm seas and light breezes. More like a ship in a storm, in campaign life we ride the high crests and sail through low troughs. I've been at the very top and I've suffered through the challenges of the bottom."
In a plea for contributions, McCain, who made no specific reference to the amount he has raised so far, contended that his campaign organization will carry him through rough financial waters:
"We have built a grassroots organization in the early primary states that is second to no one in the race. It is this strong infrastructure that allows us to weather any storm we face."
In the first quarter, McCain's fundraising problems were compounded by the fact that not only did he raise less than his opponents, but he also spent a much higher percentage of his contributions, 64 percent, leaving him with a paltry $5.2 million in the bank as of the end of March, less than half the cash on hand of Giuliani and Romney.
In effect, McCain had the highest "burn rate," and only a steady decline in the polls to show for it. Romney had and is expected to continue to have a "burn rate" approaching that of McCain, but Romney at present has something to show for his investment: the lead in polls in both New Hampshire and Iowa.
The stakes in the soon-to-be-filed reports are perhaps highest for Edwards and McCain. Both were third in the first quarter competition, and a weak second quarter report would threaten their media-defined status in the top tier.
Romney, who gained stature after filing a first quarter report showing $23 million-plus in contributions, is sending out signals that his pace may have slowed. Just days ago, he announced that he was putting more of his own money into his bid.
The campaign reports are not due until July 15, but many candidates will release them before that. The exact timing is based on a calculation of how to minimize adverse publicity and how to obtain the most favorable coverage.