Thomas B. Edsall

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Thomas B. Edsall

The Huffington Post

Poll: GOP Driving Hispanics Away With Anti-Immigration Push

December 6, 2007 03:04 PM


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The Republicans' hard-line stance on illegal immigration has reversed the GOP's recent gains among Hispanic-American voters, whose loyalty to the Democratic Party has shot back up to the levels of the 1990s.

The Pew Hispanic Center has released a new survey showing that since July 2006 -- when most Republican presidential candidates, and many of the party's members of Congress, harshly attacked immigration legislation offering a pathway to citizenship for the undocumented -- Hispanic support for the Democratic Party rose by 8 points and dropped 5 points for the GOP.

In other words, what had been a 21 point edge for the Democratic Party (49-28) in July 2006 has now ballooned into a 34 point advantage (57-23).

"This U-turn in Hispanic partisan allegiance trends comes at a time when the issue of illegal immigration has become an intense focus of national attention and debate -- on the presidential campaign trail; in the corridors of federal, state and local governments; and on cable television and talk radio," wrote the authors of the Pew study, Paul Taylor and Richard Fry.

Looking toward 2008, Democratic Hispanic voters strongly favor Hillary Clinton, 59 percent, compared to 15 percent for Barack Obama, 8 percent for Bill Richardson and 4 percent for John Edwards.

Among the minority of Hispanics who describe themselves as Republicans, Rudy Giuliani led with 35 percent, well ahead of Fred Thompson, 13 percent; John McCain, 10 percent; and Mitt Romney, 4 percent.

The study demonstrated that mounting Republican opposition to plans offering citizenship rights to some of the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants in this country has proven costly to the party among Latino voters. Giuliani and Romney, who had in the past backed such measures, no longer do so, and McCain, who had been a leading sponsor, has pulled back from his position.

Taylor and Fry noted that Hispanic votes could be crucial to the outcome of the 2008 presidential election "because they are strategically located on the 2008 Electoral College map. Hispanics constitute a sizable share of the electorate in four of the six states that President Bush carried by margins of five percentage points or fewer in 2004 -New Mexico (37%); Florida (14%); Nevada (12%) and Colorado (12%). All four are expected to be closely contested once again in 2008."

At the same time, however, Republican strategists are planning to use the support from leading Democratic presidential candidates for immigration reform legislation as a wedge issue. They hope to use the anger of some white Democratic voters toward illegal immigrants to draw them to the GOP.

Among some of the key findings of the telephone survey of 843 registered Hispanic voters:

* By a margin of 44-8, these voters said the Democrats have more concern for Latinos than Republicans.

* By only a slightly smaller margin, 41-14, Hispanic voters said the Democrats are better equipped to deal with illegal immigration.

* Although Bush has pointedly sought to build support among Hispanics, 41 percent described administration policies as harmful and only 16 percent said they were helpful.

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The headline should read, "Driving away illegals" I don't know a single legal immigrant that supports illegal immigration. My father is a legal immigrant and I'm first generation. You will find the people who are most against illegals are those that worked to get legal citizenship

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:35 AM on 12/10/2007
- clr2 I'm a Fan of clr2 permalink

ILLEGAL ALIENS no matter where they come from need to be deported. We spend BILLIONS to provide an education and health care to people who don't belong here. We need to use that money on our own poor. All ILLEGAL ALIENS need to be deported, those who hire ILLEGALS should be heavily fined, and we should return to the original intent of the 14th amendment and do away with anchor babies.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:57 AM on 12/08/2007

Immigration is a double edged sword. If you stand on either side of it, you will be sliced and diced!

After thirty years or more of little control, does anyone really think that they have a solution, or a tenable and humane one?

Hispanics probably know that the Democrats care more for middle class and other working people in the areas of healthcare, education, and the general welfare of average people.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:27 PM on 12/07/2007

Using the phrase "anti-immigrant" to describe those who oppose ILLEGAL immigration is a technique right out of the Frank Luntz playbook. People who use that phrase are either ignorant, dishonest, or both.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:16 AM on 12/07/2007

Let's see growing up in old America,You couldn't own a driver lic or vote if not an American Citizen!Some where down the line rule's were sweeped under the rug,Now the box has been open and the Vote's are coming and there aren't majority White! losing control is a concern for them because the Hispanic population is growing very fast and they VOTE!NUMBER'S DON'T LIE CITY AND TOWN'E WILL COME UNDER HISPANIC CONTROL IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:55 AM on 12/07/2007

Whoops, that should read TO GO TO college.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:20 AM on 12/07/2007
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Pretty soon the "race whiners" will start posting, trying to make the good hearted feel guilty because they're prejudiced against "brown people", meaning Mexicans. What they cannot grasp, no matter how many times it's explained to them, is the fact that a majority of Americans are upset about the illegal part. Illegal, meaning against the law, for those who have a problem with the word. The apologists for illegal immigration think there should be one set of laws for the Mexicans who come here illegally and another set of laws for the rest of us. Then, some ignoramus will post the usual, "They were here first" nonsense because they're too uneducated to understand that the tribes here first were not the same as the tribes who were in Mexico before the Spanish came.
So, for all of you who attempt to deal with stupidity using logic, give it up. My dogs have more understanding of the term illegal than the race baiters who will be crawling out from under their rocks soon.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:48 AM on 12/07/2007
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According to the majority of posters here and other places-

The Republicans' hard-line stance on illegal immigration has reversed the GOP's recent gains among Hispanic-American voters, and the Democats amnesty for all illegal immigrants has reversed the Democrats recent gains among legal Americans voters.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:36 AM on 12/07/2007

I agree with LUNGFISH, TKK, and ACEBASS. PROGRESS you are a real funny guy, i think you may not live in an area that has been over run with people who should not be here. And if you would look around you, "illegal aliens" are not just picking our crops, but doing construction,electrical contracting, plumbing,etc. I have a couple of friends who had to throw in the towel because their business's, rug cleaning and landscaping could not compete with "illegal aliens" undercutting them. Housepainters are suffering as well and these are the jobs that Americans did because they were not going to college or were working TO GO college. As a person on the cusp of a lower middle class economic bracket i see this with my own eyes, so all that garbage about "illegal aliens" not taking jobs is just that, garbage. And my state is rapidly becoming
a haven for those that are here illegally, i voted for 187 and none of that was implemented beause of those "open border" types in places of influence.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:23 AM on 12/07/2007
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Why would anyone want to hire an illegal worker if they had to pay them minimum wage at least? It seems to me that the bottom falls right out of the argument that they should be here as undocumented workers if they have to be paid a legal wage.

It isn't that they do the jobs that Americans won't do... its that they do it for less than Americans would allow themselves to be paid. An employer has them over a barrel and can cut his labor costs if he has an illegal workforce that works for less than minimum wage.

Documentation to allow them to work would mean that those who hire them would have to treat them like any other worker and the rationale for hiring them over an American worker fails.
If we have to pay minimum wage for watermelon and lettuce processors then I am sure there would be more Americans in those fields doing the work....

I remember when I was a kid in Oregon, picking crops was how you made your summer money. The problem was that you were paid by the pound for what you picked. That usually came out well below the minimum wage. If you were paid by the hour then you could actually make a living at it.

Sure it would drive the cost up for the consumer but it is artificially low because of a slave labor market.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:18 AM on 12/07/2007
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If you jumped the border, you are illegal and a criminal.
If you jumped the border and stole or faked a ss# so you could work, you are illegal and a criminal.
If you jumped the border and committed a crime like the guy in Oakland who killed two kids while driving drunk and put others in the hospital, you are illegal and a criminal. In his case he was a known illegal, a repeat DUI, an unlicensed and uninsured driver who single handedly ran up a HUGE bill for the legal residents of America to foote.

Crime statistics involving illegals do not support the idea that they are a benign administrative issue.

Further, If you own a business and you hire illegals you are a criminal. Like the company that gave fake IDs to illegals to allow them into secured areas of Chicago's OHare airport.

The illegal status makes both the illegal worker and our country vulnerable because it is basically a slave market that allows criminal businesses to exploit illegal people and has created an underclass of human traffiking and an inability to hold individuals and companies accountable.

I would pay 15cents a pound more for chicken to have a legal, American worker in a legal American company. How safe are we if the company has chosen to cut costs by hiring slave labor?

Ship illegals back after we put them to work rebuilding New Orleans or something equally constructive for a couple of years. If they steal identities or commit other crimes make them do hard time THEN ship them back... Same goes for companies who hire them.... shut them down and prosecute with mandatory sentencing.

This issue could keep me from voting Dem if they decide to call these folks "undocumented" instead of illegal...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:01 AM on 12/07/2007

What does that say? That Hispanics are fair-weathered friends?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:32 AM on 12/07/2007

Mexico is a separate country from the United
States, hence the spelling difference and
uniquer geographicer representationaler on
the Google. The problem here is that too many
pushover feel-good pandidates from BOTH parties
have caved again and again and again to pressure
from both bleeding-heart advocacy groups and
corporate lobbyists who want a no-borders
arrangement so they can go labor shopping.
They either need to establish and enforce
a workable border and immigration policy with
Mexico that shows tangible results and clarifies
the issue for all and sundry, or lay off the
USBP and laissez le bon temps rouler, but
half-way, half-assed isn't going to help
anyone, but it WILL keep the immigration
lawyers and lawn force mint employed screwing
around with it...maybe that's the idea? Hmmm...
jobs for Murkuh, I guess...concrete can't be
bribed...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:23 PM on 12/06/2007
- loki I'm a Fan of loki permalink
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There is a reason we have a legal immigration policy. No one that I know has ever said that humans or illegal, or dont have rights. But, there are laws, and justly so, that are to prevent just anyone from walking into the US. If people think those laws are ignorant, then have a national referendum on it, vote it out of existence and live with the results of your actions. But to pay a few congressmen millions to change the laws for a few, especially with something like this is just asinine. Then again , we are a country with plenty of asinine people in it.

Im sorry if you dont like it, but illegal , is illegal. Is it ok for me to walk into 711 and take what I want without paying? Maybe I need the things I take to survive? Is it ok then?
Is it ok for me to drive on the wrong side of the road because I want too? Is it ok for me to move into your house because I want a nice place to live?
No, I dont think it is. And neither is entering the US illegally. No matter where you are from, or for what reason. Illegal is Illegal. Once we start making exceptions, then rules no longer apply.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:19 PM on 12/06/2007
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Wonderful!

No self respecting latino should ever allow themselves to buy into republican bullshit (yes, Ramirez, I am talking to you).

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:55 PM on 12/06/2007
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