On The Rolling Of Dice

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First Posted: 12-19-07 05:23 PM   |   Updated: 03-28-08 02:45 AM

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You know, a lot has been made of this bit of banter from the Charlie Rose Show:



And fairly so. But, in truth, is a "roll of the dice" really so chancy? The fact is, if you are jaded enough to see a risk in any of the candidates for President, and are a savvy enough gambler to boot, then a "roll of the dice" is actually a pretty attractive proposition. Certainly more so than say, a "spin of the wheel," or a "turn at the slots," or "attempting to play blackjack at the same table as some Swingers wannabe from Silverlake who hits on all the wrong cards." Indeed, there are certain advantages to holding the bones in your hand, and when you add them up, you should let them roll.

1. Compared to other gambles, the roll of the dice has favorable odds.
The average craps table is a riot of dizzy and seemingly complicated betting, but with just a little knowledge, you can make bets that dramatically drop the house advantage. The Wizard of Odds informs that on "the most fundamental bet in craps," the pass line, the House edge is a low 1.41%, and from there, there are wagers you can make in any given round that raise your advantage considerably. Larry Edell at About.com notes, "Some of the more popular bets are pass line with maximum odds, don't pass with maximum odds, come bet with maximum odds, and don't come bet with maximum odds. If you play at a 100X odds table, the casino advantage here is only .02% or less! Where else can you find a better deal than that?"

2. It's a gamble that pays off in the long haul.
Edell notes two craps selling points that should be of interest to all Americans. First, "There are long, profitable streaks in craps." Second, "You can make money just by riding along with a good shooter." Given enough "dice rolls," over time, everyone can benefit. Now, it's been said that the irony of Bill Clinton's comment is that when he ran for President, he could have rightly been termed a similar "roll of the dice." But game recognizes game, right? And the "record economic expansion" - that long, profitable streak that benefited all of us along for the ride - that Clinton is said to have authored is still quite legendary in Democratic circles.

3. If you're looking for a quick reversal of fortune, a couple rolls of the dice can put you up fast.
And with a minimum of buy-in, too! Quoth Edell: "Bet just one lowly dollar on the two or twelve. If it wins you get $30! Let the $30 ride and if it wins you get $900! You've turned $1 into $900 in less than a minute! It's highly unlikely, but where else can you possibly win this kind of money in such a short amount of time?"

As it turns out, you could do a lot worse, as a gambler, to be betting on a "roll of the dice." And when you look at history, the dice roll has led to great things. Why, Julius Caesar, standing at the edge of the Rubicon, once said, "Alea iacta est (The die is cast)," and the Roman Empire was built on all the coming, seeing and conquering that followed.

A word of caution, though: In the end, things didn't turn out all that great for Caesar.
You know, a lot has been made of this bit of banter from the Charlie Rose Show: http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid1348330597http://www.brightcove.com/channel.jsp?channel=1178199204 ...
You know, a lot has been made of this bit of banter from the Charlie Rose Show: http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid1348330597http://www.brightcove.com/channel.jsp?channel=1178199204 ...
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- outnow I'm a Fan of outnow 179 fans permalink

Great! Here we go again.

The corporate media and the pundits want me to choose between either the junior Senator from Illinois and the junior Senator from new York.

John Edwards hardly existed in the ruling coverage.

Corporate media loves Kumbay-Obam-a and fears "Angry John."

Let's look at "hope" as a "sell out," for a moment. Don't look at class differences in this country! Class is that pesky little problem when some folks get all the money. Remember that one? Like when the White Russians were deposed in the revolution. Don't worry rich folks, says, Obama to the corporate class, I am a corporate player.

The new game will be to bedazzle and confuse the progressive base, throwing out a few populace-pleasing lines about fighting injustice while advancing the corporate-­neoliberal agenda you guys vetted me on before you made me an overnight rock star.

"No one has asked you (the well-healed corporate elites) to play a part in the project of American renewal, says Mr. Obama while addressing the masters of global corporate capitalism at the Wall Street Headquarters of the NASDAQ last September 1.

Imagine - no one ever asked the ultra rich to help! All that wealth was just there for the asking and Mr. Obama just thought the idea up. What a brilliant mind! How clever! Why didn't the Russians simply ask the the wealthy nicely?

Selling "false hope" is a way of selling out because nothing will be done. Giving up the fat 30% of all insurance proceeds off the top for medical care is not like choosing "A" or "B" for these insurance companies - it means that these insurers stand to lose many billions of dollars annually, even trillions. "Just ask," says Mr. Obama, "and it will be given."

The choice is between corporate power and mass poverty; between corporate power and democracy, as Mr. Edwards says, "beating the corporations at their own rigged game."

Mr. Edwards started a poverty center at the University of North Carolina. He cares about labor says Jesse Jackson.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:30 PM on 12/20/2007
- LeeFromVA I'm a Fan of LeeFromVA 10 fans permalink

Barack Obama can do for the Democrats what Ronald Reagan did for the Republicans. I see Obama as coming to the rescue of the Democrats the same way Ronald Reagan came to the rescue of the Republican party at a time when the Democratic party was demoralized with what seemed like a failed presidency, much like what Dubya has done to the Republicans party and our nation as a whole. Reagan offered a glimmer of Hope that we could turn the page. He made it cool to be Republican and he won over many Dems, who would become known as the Reagan Democrats. His appeal was broad and inclusive. He provided inspiration and motivation that America could be great again. To this day Republicans still invoke the name of Ronald Reagan as an example of what's good about the Republican party. What we need at this point in history is someone to finally unite the red and blue states. Someone to motivate people. Someone to lead us, all of us, as one nation. Obama has already won over many Republicans. We need inspiration. We need HOPE. We need Barack Obama. He is the ONE. It's not time for him to wait his turn. The time is now! America can be great again, and the Obama Republicans will turn out to support him.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:28 PM on 12/20/2007
- horseface I'm a Fan of horseface 5 fans permalink

If the "Supreme Court" had rolled the dice instead using their Supreme Noggins to pick a president, we might have had Gore America for the last 7 years. As things are in the Empire of Bush, I'm surprised the All High Republican Grand Master and the NeoConvicts haven't replaced Congress and the Senate with loaded dice - but maybe they have.....

Maybe a Gamble is better than a Farce.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:08 AM on 12/20/2007
- MPeter I'm a Fan of MPeter 25 fans permalink

Yep, good old Bill did. I mean this guy would start off like he had something sensible to say, then he would say, 'I stayed up late last night to Watch Al Gore. He gave a great speech accepting the Nobel Prize...but he and Kerry had to fly all the way to Bali...' and one could see Charlie twist and turn in his chair wondering where the guy was going...
Bill was really giving it to her as much as he thought he was knifing Obama and talking up Edwards.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:36 AM on 12/20/2007

http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=1f22d28c-ced2-4761-b350-77f3513928ac

From today's New Republic - another point of view on relying upon inexperience - but having a "hunch" or "casting dice." We just go through doing this with Bush. Let's not allow history to repeat itself. Read below:

"....In recent years, pundits from across the political spectrum--and not just in politics--have denigrated informed and reasoned decision-making in favor of hunches, snap judgments, instincts, and what the upscale middlebrow's favorite trendspotter, Malcolm Gladwell, defends as "instant intuition." The political pundits have praised candidates based on their projections about the candidates' characters, personalities, and inner lives--and what they imagine about the candidates' instincts. Possessed by a will to believe in somebody, the pundits intuit intuition. It is the delusional style in American punditry.

The style was particularly prominent during George W. Bush's rise to the presidency. Although Bush had a thin record on domestic matters as governor of Texas, no record whatsoever on foreign policy, and things to hide about his past, none of it mattered. As president, he has asked the American people to trust him because of his faith in himself and his God-given instincts--what he calls his "gut." For years, the Washington press corps was bowled over by such self-assurance. Having decided that the wonkish, reasonable Al Gore was boring and inauthentic, reporters covered Bush as a centered man with superb intuition.

Bush has governed in much the same way, with harrowing results. Shortly after the invasion of Baghdad in 2003, when Senator Joe Biden raised serious questions at a meeting in the Oval Office, Bush serenely pushed aside Biden's concerns about rising sectarian violence, the disbanding of the Iraqi army, and the growing problems of winning the peace. "Mr. President," Biden finally said, "How can you be so sure when you know you don't know the facts?"

Bush stood up and placed his hand on the senator's shoulder. "My instincts," he said meaningfully. "My instincts."

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:09 AM on 12/20/2007

I bet a lot of "independents" will again clobber Hillary and Bill for this comment. It makes me wonder if they are just repubs masquerading as independents.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:59 PM on 12/19/2007
- morris1030 I'm a Fan of morris1030 18 fans permalink

Disgusting. In possibly the most critical time
in history we face loss of our Democracy. This is not a gambling proposition.

How cynical and naive. We need the most mature experience we can possibly have to face the excruciating challenges before us.

It will take seasoning, knowledge/skill to cope with and generate real change. This unquestionably calls for experience...plus.

Lightweight experience and talking points will not meet these challenges. Change is not a word.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:50 PM on 12/19/2007
- getoffmedz I'm a Fan of getoffmedz 110 fans permalink
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Man, is Hillary going to be pissed off?

In this interview, good old Bill stepped on his dick, again.

LMAO

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:33 PM on 12/19/2007
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