Merrill: U.S. Recession Has Begun

Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg says the US economy has entered the first full-blown recession in 16 years. The Telegraph:

"According to our analysis, this [recession] isn't even a forecast any more but is a present day reality." Mr Rosenberg points to a whole batch of negative data to support his analysis, including the four key barometers used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NEBR) - employment, real personal income, industrial production, and real sales activity in retail and manufacturing.

Mr Rosenberg notes that although the NEBR will be the final arbiter of any recession, such confirmation may be two years away as it typically waits for conclusive evidence including benchmark revisions. However, he believes that all four of these barometers "seem to have peaked around the November-December period, strongly suggesting that we are actually into the first month of a recession."

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