How Wrong Were The NH Polls?

Atlantic.com:

Commenter Brian makes an observation "No one is talking about how the polls actually nailed Obama's number. Obama didn't lose this election. He stayed steady and Hillary surged ahead." That seems to be true. Here's a chart comparing the actual results to the most recent Pollster.com current standard estimate polling average.

Just as Brian says, the difference between the Obama poll level and the Obama vote total level seems to just be your basic statistical variance. The pollsters underestimated Clinton's level of support. People who were undecided as of the last round of polling seem to have gone overwhelmingly in her direction.

Read the whole story: Atlantic.com

Comments

[PuffAndStuff]

12:54 PM on 01/09/2008

Bizarre. Odd. Suspicious?

It's difficult to reconcile that all the polls could have been THAT wrong.

I do hate to suggest it, as I'm generally not someone who subscribes to conspiracy theories of any kind, however -- is there anyway, anyway at all that the voting machines could have malfunctioned last night? (albeit unknown error/s -- or -- rigged, intentional malfunctioning?) ...

How could we ever know? ... I doubt we ever could/would know.

[xrayman]

12:43 PM on 01/09/2008

MSM uses polling to sway public opinion. I'm glad the voters of NH are goats instead of sheep and didn't mindlessly follow what the polling and the MSM told them.

I think what swayed the voters of NH more than the tears, was the highly partisan backing of Obama by the MSM. The hackjob against Clinton by newspapers, cable outlets, and blogs like HuffPo may have backfired in a maverick state like NH.

This has definitely made the primaries more fun. Let's Rock and Roll.

[rollingdivision]

12:31 PM on 01/09/2008

A high percentage of Democratic voters were unwilling to say they were not supporting the African American candidate. So, the polls were overly favorable to Obama. Once in the privacy of the voting booth, the racism of those who lied to the pollsters came into play. Sad, but true.

[loki]

12:21 PM on 01/09/2008

Like Ive said before, Polls are to persuade the public. It doesnt seem to have worked this time, and now they are scrambling to get their "believability" back with the brain dead masses.

[waitng]

11:09 AM on 01/09/2008

Classic, classic proof of how the msm are a worthless place for information, all the msm does is entertainment. 1 damn state had it all sewed up for obama and huckabee and the others were taking their last gasps before dying. All the pundits with their analysis' it is hard to tell if they are calling a sporting event or trying to present everything like a night at the movie theaters. And unbelievably, this is how a vast segment of our population want and take their news and/or information. Sexy broadcasters. Fancy commercials.(when is this going to be as big as the superbowl commercials?). And a lot of hot air about nothing. Christ, what a messed up country this is when the msm can influence the populace so quick to believe everything is decided after the first round. About the only joy or pleasure to get from it is when these people who have supposedly predicted everything the people start acting like people and do some thinking for themselves and 'confound' the msm.

[abbiehoffmansghost]

10:46 AM on 01/09/2008

Polls do not serve the American people. They serve a niche of rich corporations so that they can behave in a fashion that will transfer money from your pocket to theirs. That is the bottom line, nothing more.

[MNmommy]

10:16 AM on 01/09/2008

The race is in chaos because it's an election, not a coronation.

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

[joja]

09:56 AM on 01/09/2008

Rove must really be loving this.

The Democratic candidate he most wanted to win, did.

Helllllloooooo, Democrats! Why do you think the Republicans want to run against HC?

Just look at her reaction to the primary results for your answer.

[ClaeDulls]

09:52 AM on 01/09/2008

Clinton will get Independents in a General, and she'll get new voters, and she'll get some of the youth vote to turn out. And some people disgusted with our direction will vote for her. But not en masse, and that's what Obama does bring to table. Clinton has a traditional coalition, and that's important, but she doesn't do well beyond it There are so many who feel gov't isn't responsive, that it doesn't hear them.

How are people who have been disengaged going to get excited about a name and person they've seen for over 16 years. Someone savaged in the press for 16 years. Someone fighting an aging generation's undying war into perpetuity.She is Kerry again, it might work this time but McCain makes his support of this BS surge look prescient while she looks uncertain at best politically calculating at worst. Clintons are not change!

We just might want a Clinton copresidency shrouded in secrecy and message control (sound familiar) to make our decisions for us. After all the public has grown more authoritarian in it leaning, valuing uncritically accepted "experience" over real judgement. But, she doesn't bring enough new blood to change the legislative makeup and be an "agent of change." We're more entrenched in the rhetoric of culture war than ever before and Clinton is one of its icons. We are mired in a dialogue of divisive demagoguery. Ability to lead or not, Clinton continues this. I hope for the sake of our country people see this and stop talking about the impossibilities, because only by rising above the "possibilities" of the past two decades are we going to get anything done.

the "general betray us"/Limbaugh "phony soldiers" controversy that dominated not only our news but our political discourse and governmental business (the resolution) is the perfect example of how childish the fight has become, when the WH and congress had sub 20 and 30 approval respectively and people were looking for some real sign of a new direction on the war. Does Hillary elevate this fight or move us past it?

[seamusnh]

09:34 AM on 01/09/2008

I live in NH. We hate the phone calls asking who we are voting for. We hate the exit polls. My wife and I get calls all the time (we have one registered Republican and one registerd Democrat in the house). We refuse to answer their questions.
Most of my neighbors and friends consider it an invasion of privacy.

[IrisANieves]

09:04 AM on 01/09/2008

Male leadership has progressively impaired our credibility not only worldwide but within our borders as Americans. We are pitted against each other instead of for each other. Our courage and convictions have taken a back seat to abrasive and unconscionable leadership. It is time for a gender change. Female leadership will re-establish our integrity at home and abroad.

[SaskiaStars]

08:49 AM on 01/09/2008

Grandma: "He was born a Muslim, and reared in the Madrassa schools. Even today, why does he not honor the flag of the U.S. and why was he sworn in with the Koran instead of the Bible when he was elected for one term as Senator from Illinois?"

You are just parroting the right wing talking points -all BS!

Obama was born in Hawaii, his father was from Kenya and his mother was from Wichita Kansas - there is no evidence anywere that Barack's father was a practicing Muslim, let alone a "Radical" muslim. Barack attended both cCatholic and Muslim schools in Indonesia before his mother sent him back to the States to live with his Grandmother - he did not attend Madrassa schools. The BS about him not
honoring the flag or not swearing on the bible is more BS - get your facts straight. There is a website called Snopes.com - you should check it out if yu really cared about the TRUTH.

If you don't like him fine - but don't be so ignorant as to repeat the racist and inaccurate right wing hater talking points.

[StanTheManic]

08:27 AM on 01/09/2008

Chaos? Now there's NO unwarranted urgency in THAT headline, is there?

[exotic]

08:16 AM on 01/09/2008

Ides, I agree. Hillary has the same connections as George Bush and family:DIEBOLD.

When the results started coming in early, I say oh,oh the fix is in.....

[GRANDMA]

08:12 AM on 01/09/2008

Go, Hillary, on to victory!

Last night's brilliant comeback only reinforces the fact that Hilllary won, fair and square, in spite of all the pundits from all the networks happily predicting her demise.

She has been criticized for her hair, complexion, voice, emotion, and her husband and child demonized over these past months.

Obama has been put in his place, and rightly so. He has no resume and no experience to step into the job in these perilous times.

Trying to sound like JFK and Martin Luther King will not cut it with us that lived through those times.

HIS BACKGROUND HAS NOT BEEN THOROUGHLY INVESTIGATED!

He was born a Muslim, and reared in the
Madrassa schools. Even today, why does he not honor the flag of the U.S. and why was he sworn in with the Koran instead of the Bible when he was elected for one term as Senator from Illinois?

The young people have latched onto him as their
newest idol, ever since Britany Spears went to rehab.

We need a woman with the character, know-how
and strength of Hillary Clinton to take over the management of the White House and government, so hoplessly bungled by men for so long.

Hillary will win the nomination and the presidency, and it will be the women of America that will lead the way!

Grandma