Odds For Recession Increase

AP:

The unemployment rate leaps to a two-year high, record numbers of people are forced from their homes and Wall Street nose-dives again. Such is the fallout from a housing meltdown that threatens to slingshot the country into a recession.

The big economic question these days is whether the weakening economy will survive the strains or collapse under them.

The odds have grown that the economy will slip into a recession. At the beginning of last year, many economists put that chance at less than 1-in-3; now an increasing number says it has climbed to around 50-50. Goldman Sachs, the biggest investment bank on Wall Street even thinks a recession is inevitable this year.

Read the whole story: AP

Comments

[Wulfstan]

Don't worry, be happy; Bush is in the Middle East trying to stir up another battle in the Forever War. That will get us out of the impending depression.

[ajax2]

Why doesn't the Fed print more money?

[Kungfublood]

1. Stop the vote fraud (thats what brought us here in the first place)
2. End the lies (wars)
3. George W Bush and William Cheney lied- strip them and their corporations of every single penny without remorse or regard for existing law (in other words act like bush and Cheney) and use it to pay off some of the debt.
4. Never let it happen again.
5. Stop the vote fraud.

[vippy]

The FED knew what was going on but we had to keep up appearances so Bush could brag about how many more new homeowners we have. When they made the equity in your home available you too knew where this was heading. Surely, no one can be that dumb and not known about it.
And who believes the government figures about unemployment, etc.? FOX News still is debating
whether we will have an inflation, they must not go grocery shopping. And Neal Bortz said the DEMS failed with the prediction of the surge in Iraq and now say the economy is trouble. Can one even fathom this crap?

[robodweeb]

"Strong evidence is emerging that consumer spending, a bulwark against recession over the last year even as energy prices surged and the housing market sputtered, has begun to slow sharply at every level of the American economy, from the working class to the wealthy.

The abrupt pullback raises the possibility that the country may be experiencing a rare decline in personal consumption, not just a slower rate of growth. Such a decline would be the first since 1991, and it would almost certainly push the entire economy into a recession in the middle of an election year.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/14/business/14spend.html?hp

[Purple Girl]

Michigan has always been th eCanary in the Coalmine- We're circling the drain. We never truely recovered from the first Oil crisis in the '70's. Becasue our Auto industry was blowing the oil industry and refused change their ways- regardless of the effects on US. Japan had to kick their asses to finally make a smaller car (more fuel eff), then when no one was loooking they returned to their 'Lead Sled Ways" and got US back were we we in the '70's.
the big 3 have been traitors to our country!!
they been moving over seas- and Toyota was smart enough to moved in to save US. thank you.
The big 3 once again failed to move forward on alternative fuels- because the oil co & sheiks told them not too.
THESE ENTITIES HAVE CREATED THIS 'OIL CRISIS' WHICH HAS NOW BEEN A LIVE & WELL FOR THE LAST 35 YRS!!!!HANG 'EM HIGH!!!
I will never 'Buy American' cars again, they have brought US (the ones who built them up & made them great)to our knees!!!
I WANT THE CEO'S & CFO'S (and any other top execs) past & present brought up on TREASON charges!!!
THE ONLY CNADIDATE WHO WILL GIVE US REAL CHANGE & JUSTICE IS KUCINICH!!!
NOTE BOYCOTT MSNBC!!!! antoher indusrty that needs to be rought up on Treason, Election rigging and dispensing propaganda against the publics best interest (along w/ FOX)

[ProudAmericanLiberal]

It's 5:50 am. Odds are increasing the sun will rise in a few minutes.

[konchster]

Bush is in a bind wants to cut taxes to save the economy ,which is like quitting your job when you realize you're in debt After all the deficit spending he has done His answer defer it to someone else i.e. your grand kids and their children. But but but Clinton

[Pdubya]

start up the helicopter ben, we're coming after you:

rEVOLution

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=py8cXlLyX18

[Infiniti]

I meant higher unemployment.

[Infiniti]

Part II

Do you see where all this is heading. Bush is exacerbating our trillion dollar economy right down the tubes so he can proudly say during his administration he never caused/had a recession. He won’t take credit for the brief and mild recession we had in 2001 as that was part 911 and the Dot.com bubble.


The US has a structural problem of too much debt and high energy costs. This won’t magically go away with a measly $300 rebate and some rhetoric. Once again we are being duped with Bush’s hocus pocus, but it is completely foolish and only masks the problem. All we are doing is giving Bush an out before he gets the real boot. Why doesn’t Pelosi understand this chicanery and call him on it.

All this short-sightedness will cause most of us (not the wealthy), a lot of real pain next year. By then, we will have rapid inflation, declining growth and no way out except for higher employment, higher interest rates, higher oil and possibly tax hikes – stagflation has returned. Nothing is free – you can bank on that!.

[Infiniti]

The political goon squads have gotten to our Fed Reserve chairman - again! They are leaning on him like the Repugs did to Greenspan. Only this time he’s not giving us lots of doublespeak.

As I see it, the Bushies want to push this recession to the next president like all the other problems they have caused. If that means borrowing, stealing, and printing more money so be it. High oil prices have been weaving their way through economy for 4 years! All goods have to be transported which means higher retail prices. Tell me how the government is going to make those built in price increases disappear! They can’t and they won’t.

Simple economics tells you that by dropping interest rates you are importing inflation. The dollars falls and goods become more expensive. That means we should be raising rates – duhh!

When the US lowers interest rates, foreigner will park their money somewhere else which causes our weakened dollar to fall even more. Do you see a pattern here?

So if we drop interest rates a half percent, big deal. What does that really get us?? Low interest rates got us into this mess. Have we already forgotten? Of the 4 million people that are affected by the sub prime debacle, only a few hundred thousand qualify for any relief. If you are rich or have good credit, forget about any relief. What happened to little or no government intervention? Are the Democrats asleep?

And guess what, oil is denominated in dollars. Those greedy oil countries have to make a buck so they have to raise the price of oil proportionately. $100 a barrel is cheap today. Wait until next year. Someday, oil won’t be completely denominated in dollars and then we are really $%#!!.

[CAPTAINSKIPPY]

All this was inevitable, once GWB was selected. Just a matter of when and how fast the house would collapse. Hedging with quality energy issues has helped ease the pain.

[Troubledwawa]

It looks like we are already are in a recession when I look at the business going under, particularly in or directly related to the real estate sector.

Levitz is going out of business along with other furniture outlets. Home Depot, Lowes, and Wal-Mart are experiencing credit problems from the folks they offered credit to, according to an article I read three weeks ago. People are behind on payments by over 90 days. This is my gauge.

According to the "Flow of Funds Accounts
of the United States" - http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/Z1/Current/z1r-5.pdf (note: this is only the balance sheet, the entire report can be found by navigating from the last link on this post) - published each quarter by the Fed, real estate values have dramatically slowed down as of Q3 of 2007 (line 4). Line 4 starts at 2002.

However mortgages (line 32) trend appears to be increasing in 2007, from 2002.

The next report is due out March 6, 2008 - http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/Z1/ I suspect this is when we might see the first lost considering building permits, housing completions, etc are off by about 24% nationwide for 2007.

That might be their 1st quarter as a recession. Like I said earlier, the businesses going under are my gauge.

[Mr.Fitz]

What do you mean "odds have increased"? Merill Lynch has said we are already in one. Others are more conservative, but who are they kidding? The concept of recession is vague. It simply means "decline in economic growth for two or more quarters" but that can be measured in so many ways.

How can billions be spent on a war while cash is infused into the market? Print more money and the value of the dollar decreases. More exports, but less call for them, as other countries are affected by weaker futures. Stagflation is upon us. Invest in Euros.

Goodbye!