With Sen. John McCain aiming for victory in today's Michigan primary, concern is rising within Democratic circles that the Arizona Republican may in fact end up the GOP presidential nominee.
McCain poses unique challenges to the Democratic Party. His reputation in the media as a political "maverick" and his streak of fiscal conservatism make him appealing to the country's independent voting block. His willingness to address global warming and crusade against special interests make him more than tolerable for some Democrats. And his vehement support for the Iraq war, and the surge that accelerated America's military involvement, obscure some of the consternation with which his fellow conservatives have traditionally greeted him.
In a hypothetical general election match-up, political observers note, this portfolio - not to mention McCain's inspiring personal story - could be a foil for a White House race long thought to be ripe for the Democrat's taking.
"From the honest Democratic perspective," Tad Devine a Democratic strategist with D&D Media told the Huffington Post, "it is just a simple fact that should John McCain emerge as the consensus GOP nominee, he will be very formidable."
Just to consider McCain the GOP frontrunner is a testament to the deft political skills he would bring to the general election battle. Six months ago, McCain saw his campaign disintegrate under financial mismanagement and strategic miscalculations. Pundits said he was a dead in the water. Staffers were let go; budgets cut, and McCain himself was delegated to second-tier status.
And yet, as Republican candidates for president failed to take advantage of the open primary, the Arizona Senator climbed his way back into the race and to a surprise victory in the New Hampshire primary.
"He has been through this process before, even in this very election," said Devine. "Being new and different offers appeal, but being tested also has its values. He understands the rigors of running for president."
In winning the Granite State, McCain peeled off his customary support from a vast portion of independent voters. Exit polls showed 37 percent of those who cast a Republican ballot identified themselves as independents. McCain received 40 percent of their support. Observers attributed this broad appeal as having contributing directly to Sen. Barack Obama's loss to Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic contest. There were simply less independent voters over which the Democrats could compete.
And in a general election featuring McCain, analysts foresee a replaying of this very scenario.
"McCain has traditionally had an appeal to independent voters," said Stephen Wayne, a political science professor at Georgetown University. "And since the partisans of each party number in the 30s the independent voters are in a critical position to decide this election. And if Obama ran against McCain they would both run against post-partisan politics. And that would probably increase the number of people who would identify as independents and vote independently. In the end, McCain poses a bigger problem to [Clinton] than he poses to Obama."
Perhaps as a reflection of concern of a McCain candidacy, the Democratic National Committee put out a lengthy PDF file on the Senator following his victory in New Hampshire. Titled, "Is Mac Back?" the piece read:
"John McCain is riding a wave of momentum, but he hasn't shaken the basic problem that plagued his campaign last summer -- his cornerstone strategic decision campaign to ditch the insurgent, maverick image that propelled him in 2000 in favor of an establishment, pro-Bush strategy. The drag shows in his relatively poor showing among NH independents and will dog his campaign as voters who are looking for the independent McCain of 2000 find the 2008 version of John McCain, complete with his new buddy George W. Bush in tow."
Indeed, some Democratic officials say that while McCain poses a political threat, he may be the candidate that most resembles an extension of George Bush's presidency, a proposition that would undoubtedly energize the Democratic base. The Arizona Republican has, they note, moved away from his traditional maverick stance on immigration reform and the Bush tax cuts, in favor of positions more welcomed by conservatives.
"[McCain] was like every Democrat's best friend in the Senate for the first three years of the Bush presidency," said pollster Mark Blumenthal, the editor and publisher of Pollster.com. "And then he got very aggressive in the 04' campaign and particular on the war in the last eight months of so, which is the crucial driving issue among Democrats."
Feeling the need to offer a caveat, Blumenthal then tellingly noted: "But there's always been a sense that he is a little bit more moderate the most Republicans and then there is his personal story... It drives progressive Democrats insane. They find his position on issues abhorring, while other voters tend to focus on personal issues and less on the issues."