Economists Predicted Prolonged US Presence In Iraq Could Spark Recession

In yesterday's press briefing, a reporter asked White House Press Secretary Dana Perino about the tie between the current U.S. economy and the Iraq war. Perino quickly dismissed the reporter's question, insisting that the U.S. economy has been "very strong" and adding that the money was necessary to "take the fight to the enemy" after 9/11...

...Oil prices are at approximately $88 a barrel, although they have dropped from the record high of $100 earlier this month. As Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz recently noted in Vanity Fair, "The soaring price of oil is clearly related to the Iraq war. The issue is not whether to blame the war for this but simply how much to blame it."

Before the war, economists were predicting that oil prices at just $75 a barrel could potentially send the U.S. economy into a recession. Therefore, the current economic situation should not come as a complete shock to the Bush administration.

Read more, and watch video, here.

Comments

[rollingdivision]

So if we are going to assume causation, the Democrats gained control of both the US Senate and US House of Representatives in the 2006 election. Then the US economy went into recession. So Democratic congressional control caused strong concern about economic issues under their leadership, slowing spending and investment resulting in recession. Or maybe it was just the normal business cycle. Nah, it was the Dems.

[Rog49Thomas]

A real case of missing the mountain for the molehill.

This prolonged war (recession or not) is going to fundamentally weaken the US economy in many ways.

This article is similar to worrying about the effects of the anesthetic when one is having both legs amputated.

[jmstrano]

why is this even being debated? of course its the war. this is what always happens when a republican gets into office. war- debt- recession.

[goldcoastsailor]

The only winners from this war spending are the contractors. The only things that matter to Bush Inc. are the banks and wall street. The U S economic engine exists only to benefit the wealthy. We have been totally screwed by these corporate whores.

[MACS]

The bush "CREDIT CARD" war with insufficient troops is responsible of the extended conflict and our current economic situation.

[Grunty1]

[insisting that the U.S. economy has been "very strong" and adding that the money was necessary to "take the fight to the enemy" after 9/11...]

Two lies in a single sentence. The economy is teetering on the edge of a cliff and we "took the fight" to the enemy's enemy, thus putting us on the same side as our declared enemy.

Anyone with a brain could have told you that borrowing over a trillion dollars with no capital to back it up would be a bad idea.

[ProfessorDuh]

Perino is a lying pig who has, ironically, never heard of the Bay of Pigs. I really don't need her "insights" on history or economics. Perhaps she should confine herself to her area of expertise, which is makeup tips.

[CCall]

The war certainly may have lengthened the expansion, abut anyone can lengthen an expansion by spending money they don’t have. It’s very unwise. What happened to republicans? Deficits used to be one of their gravest fears, now it’s become standard policy. The next president will be forced to take harsh measures to counter years of deficit spending by Bush, just as Clinton was forced to cut spending and raise taxes by years of Reagan/Bush41 deficits. And in 2000 Bush43 inherited a budget surplus, which he quickly eviscerated. Cheney has been quoted as saying “Reagan proved deficits don’t matter.” Aren’t there any disciplined conservatives left?

[wsblake]

F*** Wall Street. The stock market is NOT the economy. Get the money in the hands of those who really fuel the economy- workers and the middle class. And that's done through tax cuts, but tax cuts to those who count- not to the wealthy. Because investing an economy ( especially a consumer-driven service economy) out of recession is pure Republican myth.

[rollingdivision]

Iraq war caused one of the longest US economic expansions in history. The normal business cycle since WWII is about 67 months. The current expansion is 128 months, much longer than normal. So, if Iraq war had an effect on the economic cycle we would then conclude they lengthened the current economic expansion.

[NotMyPrez]

It'll be over in six days...no six weeks...no six months...no six YEARS!

by that time Bush will have bankrupted this country just like he did his businesses...

[raptor]

"Now class, we're going to to start off this course in Economics 101 with a a discussion of guns OR butter. Wake up, George".

[lippp]

If, as Bush has said time and time again, we are fighting a global war on terrorism, where the hell is the rest of world especially in assuming a greater share of the burden in life and treasure? the truth is Bush screwed up big time and none of our allies are willing to pony up any significant assistance. So we Americans are left with the massive cost to our military, our budget, and our economy. And the sad thing is Bush will apparently never be held accountable.

[gonnuts]

Oh, gee - economists must be brilliant ... my fucking dog could have told you this!

[EdwardEdwards]

D - U - H spells DUH!