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The Five Most Vulnerable Democrats In 2008
With so much attention focused on the white-hot presidential campaign, it is easy to forget the races further down the ticket that voters will be following in November.
Congressional analysts agree that while the Democrats are poised to expand their majorities in both chambers in November, there are still several Democratic members of Congress with big bullseyes on their backs.
"I think that even thought the national political landscape favors the Democrats, there are a handful of Democratic freshmen who currently represent Republican districts - many of whom got into office because of Republican scandals," said Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter that tracks congressional races.
A number of freshmen House Democrats have been dubbed "scandal babies" by David Wasserman, House Race editor of the Cook Political Report. These lawmakers owe their election victories to the missteps and foibles of their GOP predecessors, Wasserman said.
Democrats in those seats are going to be given a run for their money, he said. But overall the Republicans have more to worry about in 2008.
"The big difference is that Republican open seats are the only competitive open seats," Wasserman said. "Democrats have five people who are going somewhere from the House in 2008, but none are vulnerable."
In the last round of congressional races in 2006, Democrats picked up 31 House seats and retook the majority for the first time in twelve years. This year, sensing that the chess board favors the Democratic Party, 21 GOP lawmakers have announced they are retiring from the House.
And although observers are expecting Democrats to add anywhere from two to seven seats to their House majority, victories for the members below will not be easy:
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Nick Lampson (Texas 22nd)
Lampson "has to be near or at the top of the list" of vulnerable Democrats, Gonzales said. His Houston-area district is heavily Republican -- he sits in former GOP House Majority Leader Tom DeLay's old seat -- and Lampson is perhaps the Democrats ultimate "scandal baby." After DeLay was forced out in a cloud of scandal, Lampson faced a write-in GOP opponent with a hyphenated name, and won 52 percent of the vote. But even with a crowded Republican field fighting it out ahead of Texas' March 4 primary, Lampson faces a tough fight in a district where George Bush won 64 percent of the vote in 2004.
Tim Mahoney (Florida 16th)
Mahoney practically owes his seat in the House to three words: Mark Foley scandal. Although Mahoney was running what National Journal called a "respectable" campaign for someone taking on an entrenched incumbent, he was still considered a long shot until allegations surfaced that Foley had sexually explicit Internet chats with teenage male House pages. Foley quickly skipped town and Mahoney became the odds-on favorite to win the GOP-leaning district that stretches from Palm Beach to the Gulf of Mexico. Mahoney carried the district in 2006 with 50 percent of the vote. But George W. Bush won over 54 percent of the district's voters in 2004, and the South Florida Sun-Sentinel reported that Republicans outnumber registered voters in the district 42 percent to 36 percent. An August primary will determine which of the three Republicans vying for a spot on the general election ballot will take on Mahoney, but it looks like he is spoiling for a fight: the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza reported that Mahoney had already raised $1.4 million as early as October.
Nancy Boyda (Kansas 2nd)
"A lot of people think that her election to Congress was a fluke and that Jim Ryun [Boyda's predecessor] ran a weak campaign in '06 and did not see this coming until the last minute," Wasserman said. Boyda's eastern Kansas district is GOP country, and its residents broke overwhelmingly for George Bush in 2004, giving him 59 percent of the vote to John Kerry's 39 percent. There are two Republicans - including Ryun - looking to oust Boyda in the fall, and Wasserman said the freshman Democrat is going to have to step up her campaign considerably if she wants to pull out a victory in November. Boyda won her seat with 51 percent of the vote, and Ryun had represented the district for a decade before losing his seat in 2006.
Chris Carney (Pennsylvania 10th)
Carney is another of the Democrats' "scandal babies" who benefited from the personal mishaps of former GOP Rep. Don Sherwood -- who was, among other things, accused of choking an alleged mistress. Carney has received good reviews during his freshman term in Congress, Wasserman said, but "he has to prove he can win when the spotlight is on him." Carney won 53 percent of the vote in a northeastern Pennsylvania district that has a solid Republican pedigree: 60 percent of voters supported George W. Bush in 2004. Four Republicans are vying for a win in the April 22 GOP primary.
Gerald McNerney (California 11th)
McNerney wasn't even backed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in the 2006 primary when he won a spot in the general election against incumbent Rep. Richard Pombo. The McNerney-Pombo fight was a nasty one, but the Democrat ended up pulling in 53 percent of the vote. However, all the attention was on Pombo. The incumbent raised the ire of various environmental and conservation groups who labeled Pombo an "eco-thug" according to the National Journal. The district "voted against Richard Pombo more than they voted for Jerry McNerney," Wasserman said. McNerney's San Joaquin Valley district gave George W. Bush 54 percent of the vote in 2004, GOP voters outnumber Democrats in the district, and McNerney faces a formidable opponent in Dean Andal, a businessman from Stockton who is a former state Assemblyman and member of the California Franchise Tax Board. But the Modesto Bee pointed to one possible trump card in McNerney's hand: through the third quarter of 2007 McNerney had raised $1.06 million to Andal's $389,000.
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January 28, 2008 08:01 PM