Barack Obama, Barack obama and intrade prediction markets, Hillary Clinton, Hillary clinton and intrade prediction markets, intrade prediction markets, primary results, Super Tuesday results
Barack Obama, Barack obama and intrade prediction markets, Hillary Clinton, Hillary clinton and intrade prediction markets, intrade prediction markets, primary results, Super Tuesday results

Barack Obama Beating Hillary Clinton In Intrade Prediction Market

Huffington Post   |   February 7, 2008 09:08 AM


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In the wake of Super Tuesday voting, the Obama campaign has recieved a bump from the Intrade prediction markets.

For the first time since the day before the New Hampshire primary, Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Intrade Prediction Market, a political futures trading exchange. On February 6, the Illinois Democrat closed the day priced at levels that give him a 53.7% chance of winning the nomination. His counterpart, in contrast, closed out with a 47% chance. Yesterday, Clinton's probability hovered in the low 60s.

Intrade markets, for those unfamiliar, are aggregations of public perceptions. They tell you not whether Obama or Clinton is more electable, but whether or not people think they are electable. And while a reliance on collective wisdom can often prove wrong (Obama, after all, was predicted on Intrade to win the New Hampshire primary), oftentimes it is right. In 2006, Intrade markets foretold every individual Senate race result, though its traders predicted the GOP would keep the Senate.

Below is the Intrade chart showing how the Democratic candidates' perceived electability has fluctuated over the last year. It's interesting to note that Al Gore's electability remains stronger than John Edwards', even though he never declared his candidacy.


Below is the Intrade chart for the Republican candidates' perceived electability. John McCain's chances have dived and resurged tremendously over the last year. In the last month - no doubt due to string of powerful primary wins, strong endorsements, and Rudy Giuliani's exit - he has managed to break from the pack. As of today, McCain has a staggering 93% chance of winning.




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LOL - Check out this Hillary spoof!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGMgxFE6bms

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:34 PM on 02/07/2008

The thing that's great about InTrade is that people are putting actual money on the line. They're crunching the numbers and watching the news and taking a very real risk. It's day-trading, to be sure. But I trust the trends on InTrade way more than the trends on E-Trade these days.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:48 PM on 02/07/2008


Haiku:

The convention is locked.

Gore Obama 08

Prosperity.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:38 PM on 02/07/2008

Obama has two main things against him should he be nominated to run against McCain. He is inexperienced and he is Black. People will realize as election time draws near that his "Dream for Change" is just that...a dream that has no real chance for success should he become President. Many voters who may want a Democrat for President and a majority Of Democrats in House and Senate will switch party lines and turn toward a more solid choice in McCain. Race will play a major part in this years election. We will either have a mixed bag in Congress or a Republican majority all the way around. The Democrats have a better chance of winning against McCain with Hillary. Gender will have less of an impact than Race and Hillary also has experience on her side.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:05 PM on 02/07/2008

People will realize as election time draws near that his "Dream for Change" is just that...a dream that has no real chance for success should he become President.

Martin Luther King had a dream. Would you like to let Obama know how futile his dream was? Obama is winning the political conversion race.

Hillary has a wealth of baggage, gender related and more importantly anti-Hillary-Clinton related. Gender like race, is an argument for small mindedness and already heavily figured in to McCain's chances. Anti-Clintonism is a rallying cry for the Republican spin machines whose effects should not be discounted. Hillary has the tougher battle vs McCain.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:43 PM on 02/07/2008

The number of people who won't vote for Obama because he's black will pale compared to the number of independent voters who will choose Obama over McCain.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:36 AM on 02/08/2008

thanks a million for your thoughts, but now you can go stick a sock in it. I guess race is the issue as to why billary the longtime frontrunner can't seem to put the black guy away. Hillary does have more experience, 35 years of pure scandal and corruption. Race will have a less of an impact than total corrupt and power hungry woman

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:26 PM on 02/08/2008

Are you a King? Royalty loves royalty.

Sounds like you are racist.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:19 PM on 02/10/2008

Well, I think they are being paid some of it up front. Bob Johnson left his vacation home down in the islands so the Clintons could stay there some years ago and he commented that he did not get to stay in the Lincoln bedroom so I guess that's a part of the payment package for his input down in S. Carolina.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:43 PM on 02/07/2008

I have a question for Clinton supporters. If Hillary Clinton does become president, is she going to do that thing that she and her husband did back in the 90's where they used the Lincoln bedroom as a campaign fundraising device? Because I'm really not comfortable with that. And if you are comfortable with that I'd like to know why.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:33 PM on 02/07/2008

I don't really give a damn, why us it so important to you?Anyway I'm sure Oblahblahblahma would have is new buddy Oprah there.
What a stupid useless question mutron.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:00 PM on 02/07/2008

Ethics and character count to many voters. It is seen by many that it is something the Clintons lack. If that doesn't bother you then you can bet that others will see you as ethically challenged.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:41 PM on 02/08/2008

No, she'll sublet a house in Kennebunkport.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:04 PM on 02/07/2008
    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:21 PM on 02/07/2008

"Secularists are wrong when they ask believers to leave their religion at the door before entering the public square."
- Barack Obama

No thanks.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:17 PM on 02/07/2008

That is a great quote. If you can't understand how one's faith may play a role in their day to day, then you might also be lost. Find your way, ReasonIsMyReligion.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:35 AM on 02/12/2008

Yo Intrade! Throw Bloomberg into the mix!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:11 PM on 02/07/2008

It's unreasonable to expect a blog to remain "fair and balanced" and to hold bloggers to the same standards as journalists in terms of remaining objective in their reports.

Thus I'm not surprised or outraged by what appears to be blatant Obama bias on Huffington Post - after all, the point of blogging is to express an opinion.

What makes me squirm is the creepy media following - including, apparently, the blog crowd - that Obama has attracted. All I hear about is Obama's "inspiring message" and his "charisma." The mainstream media just shoves this message down my throat, along with images of Obama delivering his preacher-esque speeches. The "pundits" are the absolute worst. Listening to Chris Matthews on Morning Joe recounting how Obama's speech made him cry was reminiscent of, well, one of Tom Cruise's Scientology rants. Ick.

I can't be the only one who is creeped out by the Obama media zeal. It's really difficult for me to inform myself and make an educated vote when all I hear and read about with regard to Obama's campaign is his inspiring message and massive, chanting crowds. Those ubiquitous images and the complete adulation of Obama by the media (including, apparently, Huffington Post) make some of us uncomfortable.

My expectations of the media are pretty low, but I do expect the media to cover politics as politics and not as some evangelical movement.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:01 PM on 02/07/2008

Exactly what is Obama's inspirational message? What is the substance of all the hype and what creates the frenzy among them. Its like the holy rollers speaking in tongues and no one gets the message except the inspired ones. LOL!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:06 PM on 02/07/2008

There must be some sort of "Clinton Talking Points" memo that circulates every day or so. Today it's the Obama Cult and Koolaid and Jonestown and Obama as Jesus and his messianic complex. Do you get paid for posting this stuff? I see this is your very first post.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:52 PM on 02/07/2008

The Clinton campaign anti-Obama "talking points" are funny and sad because they are so weak. It's creepy the way Hillary supporters go after Obama with such zeal. They sound like talking robots trying to silence any positive news.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:14 PM on 02/07/2008

Yes, I've been hired by the Clinton campaign to spread anti-Obama propaganda on their behalf by posting comments to high-traffic blogs. I'm paid $.10 per post and I receive an additional $1.00 for each pro-Clinton response.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:05 PM on 02/07/2008
photo

LucyintheSky
Not as creepy as Hillary's laugh!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:17 AM on 02/10/2008

Do you actually have something intelligent to add to this comment stream? Obama is a candidate for the President of the United States for all of the people. Not special interests, not to wage war, but to bring real change articulated on his web site, in many thoughtful books and thousands of news media articles and debates. If you want to debate an issue, choose one. Iraq is my favorite. My son is in Iraq. I want the troops home period. Hillary will keep permanent based in place as she will support the large corporate interests who want those based in Afghanistan to guard the pipeline. Choose health care, she will mandate for all ... you will have wages garnished, this isn't even the issue, it is because she supports the insurance companies who will require every human soul in the risk pool to cut THEIR costs. Look at who I mean "what" entities (not human beings) have given her most of her money (which she has spent - where did it go?)

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:26 PM on 02/10/2008

Obvious propoganda..........below the usual standard of propoganda I'm used to here at the PuffCo. Isn't there some think tank pinhead you can quote to tell us all how useless our protests are, so we will just drink the koolaid of the Obamanation and fall into step.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:50 PM on 02/07/2008

Ol Blitzer over at CNN has begun speaking of the Obama people in terms like "Cultish" and how "Unhinged" the cult becomes when someone criticises BO. LOL!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:00 PM on 02/07/2008

The prediction market is about as accurate as the HUFFINGTON POST Polls" and the "Obama Surges". Just keep predicting and surging, it is good for boosting Clinton's delegate counts. Hillary will laugh all the way to the White House.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:44 PM on 02/07/2008

If you have seen the look on Clinton's face the last couple of days, she does not seem to be laughing.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:38 AM on 02/12/2008
photo

It is telling that Hillary's message plays best to the least educated voters.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:51 PM on 02/07/2008

Ya mean the ones this economy has left behind?

Ya mean the ones with memories that go back more than seven years?

Ya mean the ones who recall Hillary tried to spare them their bankruptcy-inducing medical bills?

Ya mean the ones that remember Hillary taking on Nixon?

Ya mean the ones who are once-burned twice-shy voting on personality?

THOSE voters?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:10 PM on 02/07/2008

But Democratic voters are generally better educated and make more money than Republican voters-fact.

Also fewer divorces-so much for Family Values.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:06 PM on 02/07/2008

NO ONE ASKED ME!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:50 PM on 02/07/2008

did huffpo decide to like this poll after going against polls? why?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:59 PM on 02/07/2008

are they serious. are they trying to ruin Barack by posting such nonsense?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:25 PM on 02/07/2008

Please pay attention: InTrade is not a poll. It is a form of "investing" if you will, in futures. Most futures are commodities like pork bellies and corn. Some futures are financial. InTrade is a place for people to invest in future events, I think largely as a game. If more people invest in an Obama future which says he will win the nomination than a Clinton future, the price of an Obama futures contract will rise correspondingly and vice versa.
So, okay? InTrade is not a poll but a form of investment. It does not take sides. It just responds to the demand for the futures tbey trade in.
There will be test after you read this.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:37 PM on 02/07/2008

Here is the result of my home poll that huff n puff can use.

My black hasband - Obama
My dog - Obama
Me - Clinton

My hispanic maid .. e surpress her vote ..


Result Obama popularity ahs risen to 75% since big tuesday

WOW

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:54 PM on 02/07/2008
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