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Barack Obama Beating Hillary Clinton In Intrade Prediction Market

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In the wake of Super Tuesday voting, the Obama campaign has recieved a bump from the Intrade prediction markets.

For the first time since the day before the New Hampshire primary, Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Intrade Prediction Market, a political futures trading exchange. On February 6, the Illinois Democrat closed the day priced at levels that give him a 53.7% chance of winning the nomination. His counterpart, in contrast, closed out with a 47% chance. Yesterday, Clinton's probability hovered in the low 60s.

Intrade markets, for those unfamiliar, are aggregations of public perceptions. They tell you not whether Obama or Clinton is more electable, but whether or not people think they are electable. And while a reliance on collective wisdom can often prove wrong (Obama, after all, was predicted on Intrade to win the New Hampshire primary), oftentimes it is right. In 2006, Intrade markets foretold every individual Senate race result, though its traders predicted the GOP would keep the Senate.

Below is the Intrade chart showing how the Democratic candidates' perceived electability has fluctuated over the last year. It's interesting to note that Al Gore's electability remains stronger than John Edwards', even though he never declared his candidacy.


Below is the Intrade chart for the Republican candidates' perceived electability. John McCain's chances have dived and resurged tremendously over the last year. In the last month - no doubt due to string of powerful primary wins, strong endorsements, and Rudy Giuliani's exit - he has managed to break from the pack. As of today, McCain has a staggering 93% chance of winning.