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Jason Linkins

The Huffington Post

huffpolitics, Barack Obama, clinton wisconsin, Hillary Clinton, Hillary Clinton wisconsin, huffpollstrology, obama wisconsin, polling, polling mistakes 2008, wisconsin, wisconsin Democratic Primary, wisconsin polling, wisconsin primary
huffpolitics, Barack Obama, clinton wisconsin, Hillary Clinton, Hillary Clinton wisconsin, huffpollstrology, obama wisconsin, polling, polling mistakes 2008, wisconsin, wisconsin Democratic Primary, wisconsin polling, wisconsin primary

Dramatic Swings, Wide Disparities Undermine WI Polling

February 19, 2008 12:02 PM


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America, your heroic pollsters have spoken! The Wisconsin primary will be won by...somebody. Maybe even Brett Favre! As always, nobody seems to know a cotton-picking thing, and they're prepared to trumpet their uncertainty with authority. Maybe you're the quaintly-named Research 2000, and you have Obama with a small lead in Wisconsin. Or maybe you are Public Policy Polling, and you have Obama up big. Or maybe you are ARG and you've decided, "What the hell? Let's just cover all bases!"

No polling organization has swung as wildly as ARG has since Valentine's Day. Their February 15-16 poll of Wisconsin voters looked like bad news for the Obama campaign and showed enough of a Clinton lead that it made one wonder why the candidate would choose to leave the state:

Just days later, however, ARG came out with a poll that suggested a crushing lead for Obama:

Of course, to some degree, it's completely understandable that there should be wide disparities. Wisconsin allows voters to register on the spot when they come to the polls, which means a late surge of new voters is always possible, and always unquantifiable.

How important are the vagaries of Wisconsin voter regulations? They could be significant: the conventional wisdom is that the Obama campaign is better poised to bring new voters into the process, but as we've seen, time and again, in these primaries, Clinton has had extraordinary success landing the late-deciders. Still, we're talking about a single poll that's flipped from one side to the other by a double-digit degree. With that in mind, ARG's stated margin of error of 4% seems like a naive underestimation.


 
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- desmirl I'm a Fan of desmirl 9 fans permalink

Who needs polls when you know Hilary is toast? Spread her with I Can't Believe it's not Butter and strawberry jam.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:52 AM on 02/20/2008
- KRANKY I'm a Fan of KRANKY 14 fans permalink

Hillary is a pig. We all know this now. she schedules an attack speech while she knows she is losing a state. PATHETIC, DESPERATE, LOSER!
Hillary makes misogyny acceptable.
Hillary is a loser that makes Democrats more loserable.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:50 PM on 02/19/2008

Sorry Kranky, misogyny is never acceptable. You may dislike a candidate but please don't let that sour you toward people who share some genetic trait with that candidate. Can you imagine someone saying that Obama makes racism acceptable? This comment is unconscionable. Shame on you.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:40 AM on 02/20/2008
- CanSoc I'm a Fan of CanSoc 3 fans permalink

Misogyny is NEVER, NEVER, NEVER acceptable you stupid ass! Next time try to post something intelligent rather than just vicious invective. You do support for Obama no credit with your remarks.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:49 AM on 02/20/2008
- LolaM I'm a Fan of LolaM 2 fans permalink

Hey.. News Flash:

In HRC's speech 2nite she lifted the EXACT LINE THAT KERRY/EDWARDS USED IN THE 2004 CAMPAIGN ABOUT HEALTH CARE BEING A RIGHT AND NOT A PRIVILEGE..SHE USED THE WHOLE SENTENCE BOTH KERRY AND EDWARDS USED ON THE STUMP!!As soon as I heard the whole sentence I flashed right back ..so I left a message at MSNBC on Voice Mail, I e-mailed CNN, and I called the Boston Globe and talked to some bimbo and told her I expect them to look into it as the Boston Globe jumped on the story about the Plagerism. I live in MA .. and the BG endorsed HRC, so they better flash that or I'll march right down there, dammit, I can nitpick with the best of em...I am so sick of Obama Bashing, otherwise I woulda just let it go.

Stay Tuned!!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:57 AM on 02/20/2008

I voted in my first primary in Colorado this year. They also allow supposed party members to show up and fill out an "authentication form" if they do not appear on the "official list". So far, I have not heard a single word about anyone in the party or out checking these "authentication" forms against the actual registration lists of the clerk and recorders.

This is a bit like the hanging chads, isn't it? The fact is, people showed up in droves to vote for Obama and no one has ever verified their abiity to cast a democratic vote at the caucuses, polls, and otherwise. Perhaps the results may change if we ever get a chance to verify the results. In the meantime, don't hold your breath waiting for my vote for Obama. It just won't happen.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:38 PM on 02/19/2008
- AgathaX I'm a Fan of AgathaX 13 fans permalink
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So, with 75% of the vote in it looks like Sen. Clinton has been trounced by 15 points-- 57 to 42--and that the most recent ARG poll was not too far off.

May their Texas polling be similarly accurate.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:32 PM on 02/19/2008
- Thatcher I'm a Fan of Thatcher 7 fans permalink

Agatha -

"Both" polls by ARG were actually the same poll. They just decided to rethink their numbers when they noticed they were the only ones showing Clinton as the leader in WI.

They then took the same poll, used different subgroups to come up with the new results.

So, in the end they could have claimed to be right now matter the actual outcome of the Primary.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:41 AM on 02/20/2008
- Ohg I'm a Fan of Ohg 5 fans permalink

We know this - the wagon train is packed and ready to go. Americans are ready to venture out into the frontier of hope, there are unknowns - but the people are not fearful. Some will stay behind to take their Prozac.....
http://thefiresidepost.com/2008/02/20/america-hope-or-prazac-nation/

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:38 PM on 02/19/2008
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But you fail to note that HuffPo has been filled the past few days with polling data from Wisconsin.

The hypocrisy HuffPo displays on this subject is pathetic.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:28 PM on 02/19/2008
- jsarets I'm a Fan of jsarets 193 fans permalink

The polling organizations simply weren't prepared for this kind of election. Given a sufficient amount of time to research the demographics and hone the tracking algorithms, they can do a pretty good job. They were all really close in Iowa.

But then after that things just started moving too quickly for them to do a reasonable job. The viewing public expects polling data for each state on the primary calendar, so the pollsters are trying give us something, but it's all crap.

Without detailed turnout analysis and rolling, multi-day tracking windows, these polls are not much more than guesses based on anecdotal evidence. This race is too dynamic and fast-paced for the pollsters to have a chance. It will be much easier for them to track the general election.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:33 PM on 02/19/2008
- Marrob I'm a Fan of Marrob 5 fans permalink

I swear sometimes I think these bulls*** polls are trying to usher us in a certain direction. Let the people vote and the winner is the one with the most votes.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:30 PM on 02/19/2008
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Tears worked right before the NH primary...maybe false accusations about Barack Obama will help Clinton here! My question is, what will she do when she doesn't get her way in a World Summit meeting?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:27 PM on 02/19/2008

stage a terrorist attack?
invade a small country?

It's hard looking tough.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:22 PM on 02/19/2008

Not to mention, Hillary ripped off Obama's "Yes We Can", and "Fired Up" before this whole thing even came up. You didn't hear Obama throwing accusations at Hillary, did you? No, because Obama has stuck to his pledge of running a clean campaign. Hillary has so much dirt in her past that Obama could bury her in it. But he has decency and honor. Unlike Hillary and her people. This is not plagiarism! I've been listening to progressive radio all day today, and several professors, teachers, and students have called in and said that this is not plagarism, and that this is just one more example of the dirty, underhanded tactics of the Clintons. Webster's dictionary says plagiarism is: "present another's writing as one's own." Barack did not do that. She can't handle that she's going to lose the nomination so she's going to take as many people down with her as possible. God, she disgusts me!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:20 PM on 02/19/2008
- sockman I'm a Fan of sockman 33 fans permalink
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Ummm She actually said "yes we will" and not "yes we can" do get you facts straight before rushing pen to paper.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:51 PM on 02/19/2008
- hank48188 I'm a Fan of hank48188 8 fans permalink

"Yes We Can" Obama ripped off the United Farm Wokers who used that chant, IN SPANISH, in the late 60's and 70's. As for the "fired up and ready to go", I've been using that for 30 years myself but I didn't invent it either. You must be about 18? Obama presented another's speech as his own, that is plagiarism when you don't credit the author, you should ask Joe Biden about doing that without giving credit, it took him about 10 years to gain his credibility back when he did that in 1988

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:34 PM on 02/19/2008

i keep up with all the polls at pollsterdotcom and i have to say the ARG polls are by far the one that are the most out of sync with reality. they hillary ahead in wisconsin when everybody had the opposite, they had barack ahead in texas when everybody had the opposite and it's been similar throughout the whole election cycle. i just ignore the ARG polls (though i do get nervous when they have my candidate ahead).

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:51 PM on 02/19/2008

i keep up with all the polls at pollsterdotcom and i have to say the ARG polls are by far the one that are the most out of sync with reality. they hillary ahead in wisconsin when everybody had the opposite, they had barack ahead in texas when everybody had the opposite and it's been similar throughout the whole election cycle. i just ignore the ARG polls (though i do get nervous when they have my candidate ahead).

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:50 PM on 02/19/2008
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Thank you for telling us this.. I hate polls..

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:13 PM on 02/19/2008

typo CNN 50 to 48 percent, no CNN 50 to 42. My apologies to CNN and to readers.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:55 PM on 02/19/2008

It is hard to take the American Research Group seriously. At the same time they had Hillary Clinton ahead in Wisconsin 49 to 43 percent based on their 2-15/2-16 poll, they are saying that in Texas that Barack Obama holds a lead of 48 to 42 percent over Hillary Clinton in a 2-13/2-14 poll. This at a time when every other poll had Clinton in the lead by as much as 20 points until the recent CNN poll that shows it 50 to 42 percent for Clinton, a statistical tie. It would be interesting to know how they are so far afield from the their polling colleagues. I heard CNN and MSNBC talking heads using ARG as a news story saying how Clinton was leading in Wisconsin but never one word about the ARG poll showing Obama leading in Texas. Does no one do research anymore? I think the news story here is that ARG has, essentially, discreted themselves as a source and no "news"person ought to be using their polls to drive a story.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:53 PM on 02/19/2008
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