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delegates, democratic superdelegates, Hillary Clinton, Hillary Clinton delegate, Hillary Clinton Delegate Count, superdelegates

Clinton Faces Daunting Delegate Deficit

DAVID ESPO | February 20, 2008 11:07 PM EST | AP

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WASHINGTON — Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton must win 57 percent of the remaining primary and caucus delegates to erase Barack Obama's lead, a daunting task requiring landslide-sized victories by a struggling presidential candidate.

Obama's victories in Wisconsin and Hawaii on Tuesday _ his ninth and 10th in a row _ left him with 1,178 pledged delegates won in primaries and caucuses in The Associated Press' count. Clinton has 1,024.

Another 1,025 remain to be awarded, most of them in contests in 14 states, Guam and Puerto Rico. It takes 2,025 to win the nomination.

Further complicating Clinton's challenge, Obama appears particularly well-positioned to win at least one of the remaining states with ease. Mississippi, with a primary on March 11, fits a pattern of Southern states with large black populations that he has won handily, including South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia and Louisiana.

The rival campaigns maintain their own delegate counts. And while both agree Obama is the leader, they differ on the significance.

"The only way in this system to amass delegates is to win by big margins. Close races result in close delegate distribution," David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, told reporters in a conference call.

"The only way she can do it is winning states like Ohio 65-35, Texas 65-35, Pennsylvania, you know, 70-30. and you go on and on and on. She'd have to win pretty much all the states, even states where we're considered to have some strength," he added.

Clinton's top aides said Plouffe was deliberately trying to set unrealistically high expectations for the former first lady.

"We expect to do well in both those states," said Harold Ickes, speaking of Texas and Ohio, which hold primaries on March 4. "But 65 percent is a far reach and there is no expectation here that we're going to hit that number."

"We're in the neighborhood of about 75 delegates behind, that is less that 3 percent of the total number of delegates who have been elected. We expect to narrow that gap substantially by the end of this process," he added.

Obama's lead in delegates won at the ballot box is partially offset by Clinton's advantage among superdelegates _ members of Congress, governors and other party leaders who are unpledged to either candidate. She leads in that category, 238-173, cutting Obama's overall margin to 89 delegates in the AP count.

Superdelegates are free to shift allegiances. And Clinton's recent string of primary and caucuses defeats coincides with a slow erosion of support among the same party leaders who established her as the front-runner months before the first votes were cast.

She has failed to add any since Super Tuesday on Feb. 5, while Obama is slowly gaining ground.

The former first lady lost two more superdelegates during the day, both in New Jersey, when one switched to Obama and the other moved to uncommitted.

Additionally, Reps. Lloyd Doggett of Texas and Ron Kind of Wisconsin, both superdelegates, endorsed Obama.

"My constituents overwhelmingly chose Barack Obama to be their nominee, and I am proud to pledge my superdelegate vote to him as well," Kind said in a statement.

Further underscoring Clinton's political peril, Rep. David Scott of Georgia announced he would vote for Obama rather than the former first lady, and Rep. John Lewis said he might switch, as well.

Superdelegates aside, results in earlier states show how difficult Clinton will find it to overtake Obama's lead when the primaries resume in two weeks.

In general, delegates are allocated on the basis of popular votes within congressional districts, and any candidate who gains 15 percent of the vote is entitled to at least one.

Clinton won New Jersey with 54 percent of the vote and Massachusetts with 56 percent on Feb. 5. But because Obama ran relatively well, particularly in some congressional districts, she won the delegate competition by only 28 delegates combined in the two states.

Contrast that to Obama's home state of Illinois, he won slightly less than 65 percent of the vote _ and won 55 more delegates than Clinton.

The contests left on the calendar include primaries in Ohio, Texas, Vermont, Rhode Island, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Montana and South Dakota as well as caucuses in Wyoming, Guam and Puerto Rico. There are 44 delegates unallocated from primaries and caucuses held earlier.

___

Associated Press Writer Stephen Ohlemacher contributed to this report.


 
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The Democratic Party is making the presidential race a hard road to travel for their presidential candidates and both of them would be worn and torn apart before the presidential election in November.

If Senator John McCain wins, the Democratic Party should be blamed.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:31 PM on 02/21/2008

If you have any doubt about would be a better president between Hillary and Barack, please read

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/20/201332/807/36/458633

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:28 PM on 02/21/2008
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The link is to a really impressive and even-handed article by a woman who set out on her own to figure out what Obama and Hillary had each done as Senators. Click! You won't be sorry.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:52 PM on 02/21/2008

That is awesome. It really puts the Clinton claim of who can get the job done to rest. The answer is obviously Obama.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:44 PM on 02/21/2008

Yep thats an outstanding article. A very real critical look at both candidates.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:50 PM on 02/21/2008

March 4 ought to about wrap this thing up.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:06 PM on 02/21/2008
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Hillary wins by a landslide!


Yeah sure: Like that would ever happen.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:03 PM on 02/21/2008

TONIGHT'S DEBATE: I hope that Senator Clinton and Senator Obama are each asked to clarify their stance on the Patriot Act. We truly must know their plans for this most sinister assault on our rights.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:02 PM on 02/21/2008

TONIGHT'S DEBATE: I want to know why the Clintons' won't disclose their tax returns unless she is nominated. What does that say about their opinion of voters in the Democratic primaries? And what do they have to hide? One thought: you can't write a check for $5 million, even with an $8 million book deal, unless you don't pay taxes. So, that $5 million came from Bill.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:00 PM on 02/21/2008

Great! But do you think it'll happen?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:10 PM on 02/21/2008

Their next step is to break the Democratic nominee who may be Obama. As the editorial in the Financial Times said today she would improve her standing by exiting the race.

Won't happen though. They want to steal it.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:00 PM on 02/21/2008
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I am not sure if she will another contest.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:55 PM on 02/21/2008

To quote Leonard Cohen:

"I stepped into an avalanche,

It covered up my soul..."

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:24 PM on 02/21/2008

We can ensure that ALL Americans "matter" again by keeping Hillary Clinton off the November ballot.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:20 PM on 02/21/2008
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If she doesn't beat him handily on March 4th then she needs to immediately withdraw and get on the Democratic bandwagon. Even that Jason Rae kid came out today and gave his delegates to Obama. I think he went that way because his entire state went heavily for Obama and it just makes sense. We need to get the general election under way quickly so the DNC can get money for the grassroots ground game they are planning. We need to get funds raised to put people in all 50 states and to start going door-to-door.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:37 PM on 02/21/2008

In Scotland they've name a dish named after her thighness, it's called haggis.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:22 PM on 02/21/2008

35,000 people showed up to a venue that holds 15,000 in Dallas...at noon...on a Wednesday, to see Obama. Clinton couldn't fill a 6800 seat arena in a town that is supposed to be "her territory". In two weeks, BHO has eroded every demographic lead HRC claimed to have a hold on.

Senator Clinton, every candidate that has left the campaign gracefully has only benefited in the publics eye...we need a new Senate Majority Leader, and I think it would be a good way to reinvent your image. Ever since you entered the 2000 Senate race you have been transparently running for President, we saw this and have decided to go for a more authentic candidate. By running for Majority Leader you could have the chance to be seen as actually caring for your country instead of your own self interest.

The writings on the wall, please, for the good of the party and the country, read carefully.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:12 PM on 02/21/2008

The media continues to repeat talking points from the Obama campaign, but I commend you for commenting on both sides, without smear one or the other.

The latest sleazy tactic from the Obama side was to equate WI as representative of OH.

This is conventional wisdom and pundits repeating Axelrod's and the Obama Campaigns Rhetoric. Even Russert fell for this. I expected Chuck Todd to continue to repeat unabashedly whatever the Obama campaign wants him to as well as ObamaWeek, Fineman and company to continue to engage in disingenuous smear campaigns in Obama"s favor. I wish I had a job where I could get all my material practically written for me!

The REAL overriding demographic was that Wisconsin like Iowa are neighboring states to Illinois, one of Obama"s home states. The Chicago, Milwaukee and even Madison have turned into a huge extraburb. All other lower slices of the data simply represent this fact. In IL, he won 65-33. In WI, he won 58-41. This is also, why comparisons to OH are incorrect. However since Axelrod"s great at manipulating the media, he has them talking about the OH demographic being the same as WI to try and peel off OH voters, hoping that people will just vote for Obama, because others like them (which they are not) did.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:24 AM on 02/21/2008

Sleazy tactic from Obama? Really? Because it isn't flattering to your candidate, perhaps?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:29 AM on 02/21/2008

EXACTLY!! The Obama camp goes over the numbers, and we get labeled "sleazy tactic"- but Clinton is overtly trying to negate the DNC's mandate not to count Florida & Mich's delegates, and the HRC camp tries to call that "political maneuvering"- ha ha!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:25 PM on 02/21/2008

I'm an leaning toward Senator Obama.
I haven't completely made up my mind. The reason I'm leaning toward Senator Obama. Senator Clinton supporters have been far more negative toward Senator Obama, yet Senator Clinton supporters continually accuse Senator Obama of being negative. The main reason I'm leaning toward Senator Obama, is he only refute negative things that are hurled at him, which is spin stuff most of the time. Senator Obama, has said many times. That he will not tolerate negative campaigning.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:06 PM on 02/21/2008

Obama has won a lot more states.

Obama has won more popular votes.

Obama has won more delegates.

Obama's primary demographic advantage is registered voters.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:38 AM on 02/21/2008
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Obama has won more "Red" States

Obama has won the vote of 1 million more people than Hillary

If you're a die-hard Hillary supporter I am sorry. You are a Democrat and you are still my brother/sister (cousin/sister for the alabamans) but Senator Obama is going to win the nomination and he's going to do it with pledge delegates. I have the utmost respect for Mrs. Clinton, but some of her poorer decisions have pushed me to be an Obama supporter just as much as some of his best decisions have pushed me to support him. If you still don't like him please download his .pdf from his website and have a look at what he's done and what he plans to do.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:51 PM on 02/21/2008

13 of the states Obama has won so far are hard-core RED states which are guaranteed to be RED in November .. States like ID ,AL, KS, CO, GA, SC, AL, MI, ND, UT, NB , LA, VA

It is extremely worrisome that in crucial Blue states like PA obama is actually trailing Mccain and there is a very good chance that if he is the nominee Democrats will loose the election because he wont carry some traditionally blue state like PA and will be unable to compete in FL or OH which are swing states.

This guy is going to be a Nov disaster based on his flimsy "all sizzle no steak" resume.... and lack of any national security credentials compared to mccain.

Also , he will lose the all important hispanic vote in Ca, AZ, NM, CO etc to Mccain, because mccain has a record of being pro-immigration and stood his ground even under great fire form republicans ... unlike Obama who conveniently discovered the latinos recently and is now hoping they buy into his hope candy...

Democrats as usual can be expected to screw this up for the world by nominating a hope peddler instead of an all around solid and experienced candidate like clinton.

Personally i am going to vote Mccain if Hillary dosn't get nominated...

I don't believe that the presidency of the US is a gift we hand to an an unqualified.. inexperienced hope pedaler... just to make ourselves feel good...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:52 PM on 02/21/2008

I am from Wisconsin and deeply resent you calling my state an "extraburb" (whatever that means). We are the state where the progressive movement was born and we are filled with independent-minded voters, which is why Obama won the state. Meanwhile, how is it a detriment that Obama is so popular in his home state, where he is best known?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:44 AM on 02/21/2008
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ntmessage -

what in the Hell are you ranting about. How can comparing demographically, WI with OH by an Obama surrogate b ecalled sleazy ?


I am puzzled by your over reaction ?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:57 AM on 02/21/2008
- davg I'm a Fan of davg permalink

Don't be puzzled. Clinton's campaign is imploding and that's got to hurt her supporters. How would you feel if the tables were turned?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:51 PM on 02/21/2008
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Well, you can always read Krugman

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:00 PM on 02/21/2008

Hillary flip flops within the SAME debate this campaign:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qggO5yY7RAo

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:20 AM on 02/21/2008



"In a reflection of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's financial situation, the onetime Democratic front-runner reported $2.5 million in unpaid bills as of Jan. 31. She lent her campaign $5 million in January. According to her filing, she would PAY HERSELF 1.26% INTEREST if she collected on the debt by tapping her donors."

(LATimes)

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:14 AM on 02/21/2008

I don't like this guy. But I have read the stories and if her Financial Reports verify this there should a public outcry.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:23 PM on 02/21/2008
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