Goldman's Profit Magic May Be Fading

Goldman's Profit Magic May Be Fading

At a recent investor meeting, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein made a wry apology for arriving late.

"This is the wrong time to keep shareholders waiting," he said, according to people with knowledge of the matter. "Maybe I should offer to wash your car or something to make up for it."

The joke spoke to a sobering reality check. After 10 quarters in a row of posting higher year-over-year earnings per share and avoiding many of the mortgage-related land mines that have blown up at rival securities firms, Goldman could post in mid-March its smallest quarterly profit in three years.

The problem: Many areas giving Goldman fits in the current quarter -- from leveraged-loan exposure to sluggish investment-banking activity -- aren't likely to recover anytime soon. As a result, its stock, still pricey compared with other Wall Street securities firms, could fall much further.

In a sign many investors think the credit crunch has hit Goldman hard in its fiscal first quarter ending Feb. 29, the New York company's shares are down 14% since Feb. 1. Goldman shares Friday rose $2.54, or 1.5%, to $177.71 in New York Stock Exchange 4 p.m. composite trading. The stock peaked at $250 last October.

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