Obama Red States Unlikely

Washington Post's The Fix:

Can Barack Obama turn red states blue? As talk has turned to a potential general election matchup between the Illinois Democrat and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), a heated debate has begun over whether Obama's message of post-partisan politics can fundamentally alter the electoral map -- making previous Republican strongholds competitive in a general election....

...Of the 14 red states Obama has won in this nominating contest, half of them haven't voted for a Democrat for president in a general election in more than 40 years. Lyndon Johnson in 1964 was the last Democrat who won Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Utah and Virginia. Meanwhile, five states have backed a Democratic presidential candidate sometime in the past 20 years: Colorado (1992), Georgia (1992), Missouri (1996), Louisiana (1996) and Iowa (2000).

Read the whole story: Washington Post's The Fix

Comments

[IdahoBert]

11:28 AM on 02/27/2008

Here in Idaho, the reddest of red states, I know numerous Republicans who say they will vote for Obama because they can't stand John McCain. Now these people have a lot of time to sober up before the election and I doubt Obama can win here, but the idea that they will seriously consider Obama is significant.

I think we are wittnessing the birth of a doppleganger of the "Reagan Democrats" of the 80s. Many of the old rules don't apply, and even though the dissatisfaction with the last eight years should be enough in itself to propel the Dems to victory, McCain's unattractiveness as a candidate will expedite this trend. Many people are saying in effect that, "I'm a Republican but the GOP has left me behind."

[SeanGardner]

12:50 AM on 02/27/2008

Obama will be fine.

While I admire Chris Cilizza and anyone for looking into this issue, I think people are missing thr point: Obama has consistently outperformed the lowered expectations of his campaigns by pundits like Cilizza, Chris Matthews and others who didin't even give him a chance of winning the numbers of states he's won thus far.

Cilizza is right when he wrote this: "Lyndon Johnson in 1964 was the last Democrat who won Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Utah and Virginia." Ok. But Virginia is now a "PURPLE" State, and the voting trend in that state favors Democrats.

And, well, Kansas is very feasible for Obama because his Vice-President will likely be Kansas Govenor Kathleeen Sebelius - a woman who has both Democrats and Republicans in her family, and, who is very respected in the Heartland. Plus, Obama's mother's side of the family is from Kansas so it will be an easy victory. And, because Kansas borders three "Quasi-RED" swing states (Colorado, Missouri, and Iowa), three states that have trended Democratic this primary season, it is easy to see that Obama will capture them too.

And as Newsweek writer Jonathon Alter has written "Obama would probably make a few Souther States Blue." This is no doubt because of the huge black vote in Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Lousiana, and South Carolina.

Again, Obama will be fine.

[Dandy12]

03:58 PM on 02/26/2008

So much for historical trends... Obama has sparked something new. Dem. voters are voting in the primaries 2:1 over Rep. McPain is seen my most as a continuation of the status quo Bush administration. He depresses with all his war and fear talk. As the economy worsens, people are going to become more disenchanted with throwing more money into black hole wars. Throw those variables into predicting future scenarios.

[Lemeritus]

01:16 PM on 02/26/2008

I think we need to stop making the issue about Hillary Clinton and start looking toward the general election. I'm astonished at the shallow thinking of the people here who:
(a) think the general election is going to be a cake-walk for Obama and/or
(b) believe anything to the contrary has something to do with the Clintons.

Here's some sobering thoughts:
1. McCain's campaign actually got a BUMP when it was revealed he was "in bed" (figuratively and/or literally) with lobbyists. There are people out there who honestly believe that makes him fit to run the river with.
2. We should count on the Republicans to fight a whole lot dirtier than the Clintons (who, after all, still probably want a place at the table).
3. Obama is not polling so significantly higher than McCain that we can smugly assume Obamamania will win the day.
4. Obama did not carry the delegate-heavy "blue" states needed to win in the electoral college.
5. We've just seen (and some of us have participated in) an enormous surge of hidden sexism; we shouldn't underestimate the danger of latent racism.

[bodi1313]

09:52 AM on 02/26/2008

Absolute nonsense.
Tens of thousands of Republicans crossed over to vote for Obama to block Clinton. Come November, they will vote for the Republican candidate.

[Lemeritus]

01:16 PM on 02/26/2008

Some won't, but... most will.

[foreffectivegovernment]

07:12 PM on 02/26/2008

Sorry but the "light" has blinded you. This is the real world of politics. Regardless of what you think, no self-respecting Republican "Loves" Obama's idea of "Change". Here is a logical explaination.

http://www.republicansforobama.org/?q=node/358

[Researchguy66]

09:38 AM on 02/26/2008

This so-called report is simply a pack of Clinton lies. We need a Bureau of Government Correctness to ferret out lies like this and prevent the American people from having to be insulted by such falsehoods. I can only hope it happens soon.

[Freddy334]

11:33 AM on 02/26/2008

Barrack Hussein Obama will never carry Florida. He may get about 10 Jewish votes in FL thanks to his close relations with Louis Farrakhan and Jesse "hymie town" Jackson. McCain could also beat Obama in New York, CT and New Jersey.

[Shaddup]

03:46 PM on 02/26/2008

I've got die-hard ex repub realatives in the south who would not vote for Hillary in a million years, but are willing to give Obama a go.

[Trollstakeyourmeds]

07:05 PM on 02/26/2008

God. Listening to you Obama supporters, the power blackout in Miami is probably due to the Clintons, too. Right? And I'm sure that a few car bombs went off over in the Mid East today. Directly traced to the Clintons...I'm sure.

[rubicon101]

09:29 AM on 02/26/2008

Time to pull up your bootstraps folks because the Presedential election is coming to your neighorhood soon.
Next November we all will be in the process of electing a new leader of our country.
If the Democrats have Barack Obama running against John McCain for the GOP. The Republicans may just have a chance to hold onto power fro another 4 years.
The Conservative right, the "far right" are actually salvating for Senator Barack Obama to run in the general election. Barack Obama is easily the easier of the choices between Hillary and Barack to beat. The Conservatives will have an easier time in convincing the Independents about Baracks experience in National Security..and let us not forget that November is a LIFETIME away when it comes to politics. Many things will change, including a much harder look at Barack Obamas past performance..all things will be looked at with a more critical eye...and Independents will be very much in play for the candidates votes.
So this country has a choice, whether it makes the intelligent choice in selecting it's candidate for their party is still to be determined..my guess is that the liberals and the rest of the Democratic party will end up making the wrong choice which in turn will be bad for the United States of America.

[ATLiberal]

07:29 AM on 02/26/2008

All hail the mighty and powerful pundits. Their conventional wisdom reigns supreme...

Do NOT look behind the curtain!!!

[ljsfolly]

05:54 AM on 02/26/2008

Don't actually believe too much from Chris anymore. he has stripes mile wide that says I am a clinton republican. He hasn't been right on too much lately if at all about the primary because all he could see was how much money he would get on stories about the clintons back in the white house. He has it wrong as there are many more clinton haters now than 5-6 months ago and the number might be bigger before she craps out of the race. The republicans see Hillary as an easier mark than Barack as his baggage isn't as heavy nor smells as bad as the clintons. I think also the idea of red states being purple is not something he can even believe will happen. We will see who is wrong.

[Zentomato]

02:52 AM on 02/26/2008

Believe WaPo if you want but this paper's record has shown such a bias toward the administration and the current power brokers as they should be labeled a sychophantic news outlet. Mr. Cillizza has not been an objective journalist with regards to Mrs Clinton. His bias on this is well known.

[mpgarr]

02:09 AM on 02/26/2008

The thing is--Barak Obama is going to run a muc better campaign than the Kerry-Edwards campaign was--and Barak is not going to be a milquetoast candidate--he is not going to "turn the other cheek" and he will come out swinging with strong left and right hooks, undercuts and every move--he is going to be the Muhammad Ali of political candidates--and he will send John McCain out in the final numbers in an undisputed TKO take down!!!

[Researchguy66]

09:39 AM on 02/26/2008

As like in wrestle-boxing?

[fact finder]

11:05 AM on 02/26/2008

mpgarr; If McCain goes to the white house with a rigged election then it will be time for a full out revolution. This war mongering pig is such a pancake that it is not even funny. He and Bush are twins. 1776

[jsarets]

02:05 AM on 02/26/2008

Obama should win IA, NH, VA, CO, and KS. NV and TN are in play. He takes OH by a little and PA by a lot. Obama's electoral weak spot is FL.

Watch for Obama to talk about faith and family values much more effectively than recent Democratic candidates. He doesn't just put more states in play, he also puts more issues in play for Democrats.

McCain hasn't demonstrated a talent for portraying empathy and compassion like Bush Jr and Reagan. If he can't appeal to the heart, then he can't win the election with any ideology, much less an unpopular one.

[Felicty]

01:54 AM on 02/26/2008

This story has a Bill Clinton stink to it.

[Silpat]

01:45 AM on 02/26/2008

Hillary can't run an effective campaign in the Primary, so I can only imagine what kind of disasterous campaign she would run in a General election.

LOL

[KQuark]

01:05 AM on 02/26/2008

Obama will not win the deep red states, but in states like VA, LA and IA he has a chance. These states have swung back and forth more than the others. Obama also has an excellent ground game like he has shown in the primaries, which will help him in close contests. Obama is inspiring many people to take action which will get his supporters to the polls.