Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers the Fed's Monetary Policy Report, Thursday, Feb. 28, 2008, during an appearance before the Senate Banking Committee. (AP Photo/Dennis Cook)

Bernanke Doesn't See Return of '70s Woes

JEANNINE AVERSA | February 28, 2008 12:59 PM EST | AP

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WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Thursday that the nation isn't "anywhere near" the dangerous stagflation situation of the 1970s.

With the economy slowing and inflation rising, fears have grown that the country could be headed for the dreaded twin evils of stagnant growth and rising prices known as "stagflation."

"I don't anticipate stagflation," Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee. "I don't think we're anywhere near the situation that prevailed in the 1970s."

"I do expect inflation to come down," he added. "If it doesn't, we will have to react to it."

High energy prices and rising inflation do complicate the Fed's job of trying to keep the economy growing and inflation contained, Bernanke acknowledged.

Energy prices are creating "inflationary stress," Bernanke said. And, that is "complicating" the Fed's work in terms of shoring up the economy, he said. Oil prices galloped past $100 a barrel on Thursday. Gas prices, meanwhile, rose closer to records above $3 a gallon.

President Bush, at a news conference Thursday, noted the slow economic growth but said the nation isn't headed into a recession.

He rejected calls for additional stimulus efforts, instead advising patience. "Why don't we let stimulus package one, which seemed like a good idea at the time, have a chance to kick in?" Bush said at the White House.

Bernanke's testimony in the Senate caps back-to-back appearances on Capitol Hill that started in the House on Wednesday. The Fed chief's overarching economic message was the same on both days: The Fed stands ready to lower a key interest rate yet again to bolster the struggling economy.

Many fear the country is hurtling toward a recession or is in one already.

The central bank started lowering a key interest rate in September. Over just eight days in January, the Fed shaved 1.25 percentage points, the biggest one-month reduction in a quarter century. Economists and Wall Street investors predict the Fed will cut rates again at its next meeting, March 18.

Just before Bernanke testified, the government reported that the economy nearly stalled in the final quarter of last year. It grew at a pace of just 0.6 percent, a big loss of momentum compared with the prior quarter's brisk 4.9 percent growth rate.

The committee's chairman, Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., described the nation's economic situation as "very serious, if not perilous."

Dodd said: "Growth is slowing. Inflation is rising. Consumer confidence is plummeting, while indebtedness is deepening."

Bernanke indicated he is prepared to lower rates even as high oil prices heighten inflation risks.

To energize the economy the Fed cuts rates. To combat inflation, it would boost rates. Rising inflation can reduce the Fed's maneuvering room in terms of revving up a slowing economy.

"We are concerned," Bernanke said. "We are trying to balance a number of different risks against each other," he told lawmakers.

Still, Bernanke is hopeful that energy prices _ and overall inflation _ will moderate somewhat this year.

And, he expresses hope that the economy will turn stronger in the second half of this year, helped by the Fed's rate reductions and the recently enacted rescue package of rebates for people and tax breaks for businesses.

"I realize that my testimony wasn't the most cheerful thing you'll hear today ... but I do very much believe that the U.S. economy will return to a strong growth path with price stability," Bernanke said.

Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala., however, worried that rising inflation could make it harder for the Fed to steady the wobbly economy.

Shelby wondered "how much more room the Federal Reserve will have to provide further monetary accommodation without threatening long-term price stability, which is very important to all of us."

He added: "While it's difficult to see our nation's economy experience minimal growth, the consequences of failing to restrain inflation will be far more painful and more difficult to unwind."

Bernanke, however, said the Fed's No. 1 battle right now is to shore up the economy. "At the moment, the greater risks are to the downside," Bernanke said, referring to shaky economic growth and turmoil in financial markets.


 
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- Dandy12 I'm a Fan of Dandy12 2 fans permalink

We had an industrial base in the 70's. Now there are no means to save us. All the means that are being used are artificial.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:18 PM on 02/28/2008
- Rule Of Law I'm a Fan of Rule Of Law 166 fans permalink

"I realize that my testimony wasn't the most cheerful thing you'll hear today ... but I do very much believe that the U.S. economy will return to a strong growth path with price stability," Bernanke said.

"I also firmly trust that our President, the honorable Herbert Hoover, those good and honest men at the NY Stock Exchange, and our friends at Chase, Morgan and National City Bank will all join with us as we continue lowering the prime rate and begin instituting tariffs to protect American Industry.

Also, those great patriots the Rockefellers, Astors, Carnegies, Huntingtons, Mellons and Vanderbilts--who wisely have already removed their money from the market so as to be better able to help it later, are even now, buying up severely depressed companies at rock bottom prices in their Patriotic effort to help sustain this economy.

And remember, America's Banks are the safest in world! Oh, and keep shopping."

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:11 PM on 02/28/2008
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Let's do the time warp again!

Frankenfurther would be so proud.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:19 PM on 02/28/2008
- mmckinl I'm a Fan of mmckinl 22 fans permalink

Bernanke - ”U.S. bank balance sheets are in strong shape."

This is an out in out lie. Non borrowed reserves, real reserves are at a negative 150%. The Feds' own figures show that.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:50 PM on 02/28/2008
- Rule Of Law I'm a Fan of Rule Of Law 166 fans permalink

Bush also telegraphed optimism about the U.S. dollar, which has been declining in value.

"I believe that our economy has got the fundamentals in place for us to ... grow and continue growing, more robustly hopefully than we're growing now," he said. "So we're still for a strong dollar."

Can you sue a president for bad investment advice?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:27 PM on 02/28/2008
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We can't even get impeachment ON the table. Nuff Said.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:21 PM on 02/28/2008
- drkazmd65 I'm a Fan of drkazmd65 56 fans permalink
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Good old Ben and the double-speak way of softening the 'blow'

"The economic situation has become distinctly less favorable" since the summer, the Fed chief told lawmakers.

No Sh*t Sherlock - did you figure that out all by yourself?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:57 AM on 02/28/2008
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Actually no. He has a posse of underlings at his beck and call and still can't keep up.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:08 AM on 02/28/2008

You have to admit, Heli Ben is good for one thing (and one thing only).

Gold & Silver. He lit a fire under 'em.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:07 PM on 02/28/2008
- drkazmd65 I'm a Fan of drkazmd65 56 fans permalink
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True - he apparently needs a smaller, more efficient, posse of underlings that don't have their heads up Bush & Cheney's asses.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:54 PM on 02/28/2008
- ajax2 I'm a Fan of ajax2 24 fans permalink
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Ben says he will lower interest rates again and again. And if inflation continues to climb it's all your fault.

"If people think inflation is escalating, they will act in ways that could make things even worse, a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy."

Ben, you stinking coward.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:49 AM on 02/28/2008
- Harrier I'm a Fan of Harrier 13 fans permalink

Unfortunately, I think we're screwed. The credit crunch hasn't even started

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:26 AM on 02/28/2008
- Sundialsvc4 I'm a Fan of Sundialsvc4 147 fans permalink

"That knob doesn't work anymore, Mister President Hoover."

"It's 1929 all over again, and you know it."

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:45 AM on 02/28/2008

Get your coffee cans ready to bail----the tsunami's coming.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:36 AM on 02/28/2008
- HmblDog I'm a Fan of HmblDog 3 fans permalink

Inflation will only be a problem if third world labor wages begin to rise. That's not likely to happen. What are they going to do form a union? Rising costs are not inflation they are really what we call a "commodities bubble."
We have the finest CEOs in the world. We'll come out of this just fine. Buy stock now. Don't be Left Behind!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:42 AM on 02/28/2008
- almoguy I'm a Fan of almoguy 7 fans permalink
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Have you checked the currency markets this morning?Please do, then tell me a story about inflation.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:14 AM on 02/28/2008
- WIpatriot I'm a Fan of WIpatriot 36 fans permalink
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I certainly hope you're being sarcastic....

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:19 AM on 02/28/2008
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Kool-Aid I would say; and from the looks of it ass flavored.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:44 AM on 02/28/2008
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