** PENNSYLVANIA RESULTS: **
99.44% Reporting
Clinton
1,237,696
54.6%
Obama
1,029,672
45.4%
The latest delegate figures are here, or check out this very detailed Pennsylvania delegate tracker. County by country results are here.
Clinton Survives Another Day: AP's analysis of tonight's primary: "Hillary Rodham Clinton survived yet another day. There will be little time for celebration, though. Time and money are running out."
Her win Tuesday in the important swing state of Pennsylvania was hard-fought. Barack Obama's well-funded effort to shut her down did not reach its goal of an upset.
The dynamics of the race are the same as they've been for more than two months. Obama is the front-runner, and California-based Democratic consultant Dan Newman points out that is more important the closer the campaign comes to the end of the primary season.
"He's content to essentially run out the clock with his narrow lead, while she needs something dramatic to happen," Newman said. "A one-run advantage in the first inning isn't a big deal, but a one-run lead in the ninth looms large."
Keep reading here.
The Hillary Victory Spin: Ben Smith reports that Clinton spokesman Mo Elleithee at the Park Hyatt in Philadelphia said: "There's beginning to be a subtle shift of psychology of a lot of the uncommitted supers. [They] are beginning to wonder why Obama has been unable to win this thing despite all the advantages he has.
"There's a lot of questions that are beginning to surface about him," he said, while superdelegates are learning that "every time she's got her back up against the wall, she delivers."
Here's her victory speech, where she told a spirited rally in Philadelphia that the "tide is turning" in her nomination contest against Barack Obama.
The Spin From Obamaland: "Sen. Barack Obama was en route from Philadelphia to Evansville, Ind., when the race was called," the Washington Post reports, "but the candidate and his advisers were all smiles when they boarded the plane, relieved that the dreaded blowout had not occurred. The news of a projected single-digit win for Clinton -- a projection that might yet change -- was transmitted via BlackBerrys as the campaign landed."
"We've been very clear from the beginning, we didn't come in with oversized expectations," said David Axelrod, Obama's chief political adviser. "We wanted to get our share." More here.
In Evansville, the Democratic presidential front-runner told supporters that he was able to narrow the gap in Pennsylvania, register a record number of voters and rally people of all backgrounds to his campaign. After the bruising Pennsylvania contest, Obama said bickering and tit-for-tat politics obscured the great issues of the day - two wars, a recession and a planet in peril. Watch the speech:
NYT Blames Clinton For "Mean, Vacuous, Desperate" Race: The Obama campaign is sending out a New York Times editorial released tonight that blasts Hillary Clinton -- whom the Times endorsed. Here's a sample:
The Pennsylvania campaign, which produced yet another inconclusive result on Tuesday, was even meaner, more vacuous, more desperate, and more filled with pandering than the mean, vacuous, desperate, pander-filled contests that preceded it.
Voters are getting tired of it; it is demeaning the political process; and it does not work. It is past time for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton to acknowledge that the negativity, for which she is mostly responsible, does nothing but harm to her, her opponent, her party and the 2008 election.
If nothing else, self interest should push her in that direction. Mrs. Clinton did not get the big win in Pennsylvania that she needed to challenge the calculus of the Democratic race. It is true that Senator Barack Obama outspent her 2-to-1. But Mrs. Clinton and her advisers should mainly blame themselves, because, as the political operatives say, they went heavily negative and ended up squandering a good part of what was once a 20-point lead.
The editorial also knocks Obama:
He is increasingly rising to Mrs. Clinton's bait, undercutting his own claims that he is offering a higher more inclusive form of politics. When she criticized his comments about "bitter" voters, Mr. Obama mocked her as an Annie Oakley wannabe. All that does is remind Americans who are on the fence about his relative youth and inexperience.
Clinton Has Lost Fight For Popular Delegates: From Marc Ambinder:
As NBC's Chuck Todd points out tonight, Clinton's chances of winning the nomination based on pledged delegates is effectively over tonight.
If Obama keeps his pledged delegate lead to around 150, Clinton needs to win 70% of them on May 6 -- and if not, 80% of them after May 6.
That's more than next to impossible.
Here's the video of Todd:
Clinton Camp: $2.5M Raised Since Victory Called: Clinton spokesman Phil Singer writes: "As of 11:30PM tonight, we are at nearly $2.5 million since PA was called for HRC - 80% of that money is coming from new donors to the campaign. It's our best night ever."
"Stop The Drama, Vote Obama": Mark Halperin provides this photo of Obama communications chief Robert Gibbs leaving the Keystone State by jet plane "sporting a t-shirt with a pointed message for voters (and superdelegates?)."
Can Hillary Overtake Popular Vote? Probably Not: Ben Smith notes:
Terry McAuliffe, on MSNBC, suggested that Hillary could take the lead in the popular vote -- a technically meaningless, and flawed, measure, but one that could in theory provide a measure of legitimacy to Clinton's claims of victory.
He's referring to a count that, at least, would include Florida, and might also include Michigan -- not to any count that Obama partisans would accept; she'd likely need a wider margin than the early polls suggest to close the gap in any mutually accepted figure.
My rough estimate was that a 10% margin and giant turnout in Pennsylvania could give her 200,000 of the roughly 700,000 votes she'd need to take a clear lead; with 20%, she would have come within striking distance. Those numbers seem high now.
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APRIL 22: Not to be outdone, Insider Advantage has also released a final poll showing Hillary maintaining the lead in the PA primary:
Hillary Clinton: 49%
Barack Obama: 42%
Undecided: 9%
APRIL 22: Today is the primary, and Zogby has released a final Pennsylvania poll showing Hillary opening up her lead slightly:
Hillary Clinton: 51%
Barack Obama: 41%
Undecided: 6%
APRIL 21: With the Pennsylvania primary a day away, a slew of polls have come out predicting tomorrow's returns. Here is the collection, with a few observations below:
Hillary Clinton: 48%
Barack Obama: 42%
Hillary Clinton: 52%
Barack Obama: 42%
Hillary Clinton: 51%
Barack Obama: 44%
Hillary Clinton: 50%
Barack Obama: 44%
Hillary Clinton: 46%
Barack Obama: 49%
Hillary Clinton: 49%
Barack Obama: 44%
First to note is that the race has tightened significantly over the past few weeks, but that most polls are reflecting a healthy, single-point margin for Clinton. SurveyUSA shows a six-point lead for Clinton, which is line with other polls, but is their closest result in weeks (SurveyUSA has, generally, had one of the best overall track records during the election season). Also worth noting is that Zogby's day tracking polls show a wider margin than this weekend, suggesting that late-deciding voters may be breaking for Clinton (another trend we have seen for most of the cycle).
APRIL 20: A McClatchy Poll has Clinton with a lead just outside the margin of error, though the undecideds surveyed are all in areas favorable to Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 48%
Barack Obama: 43%
APRIL 20: A Zogby poll has Hillary Clinton maintaining a slim lead at the end of the weekend in Pennsylvania:
Hillary Clinton: 46%
Barack Obama: 43%
APRIL 17: A Zogby poll shows the Pennsylvania race tied, although Zogby has had a few misfires so far this year (see: Ohio, California):
Hillary Clinton: 45%
Barack Obama: 44%
APRIL 15: A SurveyUSA poll shows Hillary maintaining a double-digit lead over Obama (more on Pennsylvania polls):
Hillary Clinton: 54%
Barack Obama: 40%
APRIL 15: A Rasmussen poll has Hillary leading by nine, a small tick-up from her lead of five last week:
Hillary Clinton: 50%
Barack Obama: 41%
APRIL 15: A Quinnipac poll taken during the height of the "bitter" fallout has found Obama's momentum stalled, but still within a few points of Clinton's lead:
Hillary Clinton: 50%
Barack Obama: 44%
APRIL 14: A Susquehana poll (pdf) shows the Pennsylvania race dead even, though the actual polling was conducted prior to Obama's comments about Pennsylvania voters:
Hillary Clinton: 40%
Barack Obama: 37%
Undecided: 18%
APRIL 14: Signs of bitterness? Whatever it is, the latest ARG poll has Hillary with a huge lead, as contrasted to a tie in the polls only last week:
Hillary Clinton: 57%
Barack Obama: 37%
Undecided: 4%
APRIL 10: Hillary Clinton has a six-point lead over Barack Obama in the latest Pennsylvania poll from Time Magazine. Clinton "enjoys a notably broader margin of support among white Democratic women: 56% to Obama's 25%. More evenly split, by contrast, are white male Democrats, who prefer Clinton by a narrower margin of 44% to 36%."
Hillary Clinton: 44%
Barack Obama: 38%
APRIL 9: A new PPP poll also shows Clinton with a small lead. However PPP's most recent poll showed Obama with a tiny lead, so this should reaffirm the idea that Clinton's support has resettled:
Hillary Clinton: 46%
Barack Obama: 43%
APRIL 9: A Strategic Vision poll reflects a similar result to similar polls, namely a tighter race than previously expected, with Sen. Clinton maintaining a narrow but significant lead:
Hillary Clinton: 47%
Barack Obama: 42%
APRIL 9: Results from a Rasmussen poll have steadied since last week's result, with Sen. Clinton maintaining a small lead. She has lost ground to Sen. Obama since March, but today's poll suggests a leveling off:
Barack Obama: 48%
Hillary Clinton 43%
APRIL 8: A SurveyUSA poll has Clinton maintaining a big lead in Pennsylvania:
Hillary Clinton: 56%
Barack Obama: 38%
APRIL 8: Another poll, this one from Quinnipac, shows the race tightening:
Hillary Clinton: 50%
Barack Obama: 44%
APRIL 6: An ARG poll shows a considerable tightening in the primary, with a tie between Clinton and Obama:
Hillary Clinton: 45%
Barack Obama: 45%
Undecided: 6%
APRIL 4: A local Pennsylvania poll shows Clinton with an 11-point lead, down since from the previous poll two weeks ago but still comfortable:
Clinton: 49%
Obama: 38%
APRIL 3: The latest Insider Advantage poll has Hillary clinging to a small lead, although a large number of voters remain undecided:
The internals show Clinton leading only slightly among white voters, while Obama leads among blacks. However, a larger-than-average number of black voters remain undecided, which suggests an advantage for Obama if past results are an indicator.
Clinton: 45%
Obama: 43%
Undecided: 12%
APRIL 2: Clinton maintains a healthy lead in a Quinnipac poll, with her lead contracting by only a few points since March:
Clinton: 50%
Obama: 41%
However, a PPP poll (pdf) finds Obama with the lead, albeit well within the margin of error:
Obama: 45%
Clinton: 43%
APRIL 1: Survey USA has Hillary holding steadily ahead of Obama, with only a slight number of voters left undecided:
Clinton: 53%
Obama: 41%
Undecided:2%